Abstract
Among the methods that are most widely applied to making energy consumption projections that go up to 15 years into the future are the direct counting method and its variations. Long-term projections of fuel and electricity prices are an essential part of all strategies and development programs of the energy sector. We propose a procedure for calculating probable fuel and electric energy price dynamics. The procedure is based on the simulation of competition on energy markets and the treatment of price dynamics as a rightward-extending cone of their probabilistic estimates. Methods and results of quantitative assessment of the price elasticity of demand for energy carriers are reviewed. We contribute to the array of available methods by introducing an original approach that combines estimates of the price elasticity of demand for energy carriers with the optimization of the energy and of fuel supply of a region.
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Notes
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The software implementation of the MISS models was developed by Vladimir N. Tyrtyshny.
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Kononov, Y.D. (2020). Methods of Projecting Price and Demand for Energy Carriers. In: Long-term Modeled Projections of the Energy Sector . Springer Geophysics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30533-8_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30533-8_3
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