Abstract
The main goal of this article is to solve the problem associated with identifying sales seasons in time series in order to build the most accurate forecast of sales of various crops and provide decision support and improve the efficiency of business processes of agro-industrial companies. In this regard, the necessity of developing an algorithm that allows to form a time series of sales in accordance with the seasons available in it to improve the accuracy of existing sales forecasting methods is justified. This study provides a detailed description of the problem and its solutions in the form of an algorithm, as well as a comparison of the accuracy of building prediction models before and after its application, which confirms the consistency of the developed method for the formation of time series.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Sedova, N.A.: A course of lectures for undergraduates in the discipline “Civil and legal problems in the field of agriculture”. Krasnodar, KubGAU (2016)
Brockwell, P.J., Davis, R.A.: Time Series: Theory and Methods. Springer Series in Statistics. Springer, New York (1991)
Kumar, R.S., Ramesh, C.: A study on prediction of rainfall using datamining technique. In: International Conference on Inventive Computation Technologies (ICICT), Satyabama University Chennai (2016)
Han, E., Ines, A.V.M., Baethgen, W.E.: Climate-agriculture-modeling and decision tool: a software framework for climate risk management in agriculture. Environ. Model. Softw. 95, 102–114 (2017)
Xingwang, F., Liu, Y.: A comparison of NDVI intercalibration methods. Int. J. Remote Sens. 38, 5273–5290 (2017)
Choudhury, A., Jones, J.: Crop yield prediction using time series models. J. Econ. Econ. Educ. Res. 15(3), 53–68 (2014)
Uno, Y., Prasher, S.O., Lacroix, R., Goel, P.K., Karimi, Y., Viau, A., Patel, R.M.: Artificial neural networks to predict corn yield from compact airborne spectographic imager data. Comput. Electron. Agric. 47, 149–161 (2005)
Gandhi, N., Armstrong, L.J., Petkar, O.: Predicting rice crop yield using Bayesian networks. In: 2016 International Conference on Advances in Computing, Communications and Informatics (ICACCI) (2016)
Natarajan, R., Subramanian, J., Papageorgiou, E.I.: Hybrid learning of fuzzy cognitive maps for sugarcane yield classification. Comput. Electron. Agric. 127, 147–157 (2016)
Al-Gunaid, M.A., Shcherbakov, M.V., Kamaev, V.A., Gerget, O.M., Tyukov, A.P.: Decision trees based fuzzy rules. In: Information Technologies in Science, Management, Social Sphere and Medicine (ITSMSSM 2016), vol. 51, pp. 502–508 (2016)
Al-Gunaid, M.A.: Neuro-fuzzy model short term forecasting of energy consumption. Prikaspijskij Zhurnal Upr. I Vysok. Tehnol. 2, 47–56 (2013)
Al-Gunaid, M.A., et al.: Analysis of drug sales data based on machine learning methods. In: Dwivedi, R.K. (ed.) Proceedings of 7th International Conference on System Modeling & Advancement in Research Trends (SMART–2018, IEEE Conference ID: 44078) (23rd–24th November, 2018). College of Computing Sciences & Information Technology, Teerthanker Mahaveer University (Moradabad, UP, India), IEEE UP Section, New Delhi, pp. 32–38 (2018)
Atzberger, C.: Advances in remote sensing of agriculture: context description, existing operational monitoring systems and major information needs. Institute for Surveying, Remote Sensing & Land Information (IVFL), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria (2013)
Jinbo, C., Xiangliang, C., Han-Chi, F., Lam, A.: Agricultural product monitoring system supported by cloud computing. Cluster Comput. (2018)
Al-Gunaid, M.A., Shcherbakov, M.V., Trubitsin, V.N., Shumkin, A.M.: Time Series Analysis Sales of Sowing Crops Based on Machine Learning Methods. Volgograd State Technical University (2018)
Ryzhkov, A.M.: Compositions of Algorithms Based on a Random Forest. MSU, Moscow (2015)
Al-Gunaid, M.A., Shcherbakov, M.V., Zadiran, K.S., Melikov, A.V.: A survey of fuzzy cognitive maps forecasting methods. In: 2017 8th International Conference on Information, Intelligence, Systems & Applications (IISA), Larnaca, Cyprus, 27–30 August 2017, Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE), Biological and Artificial Intelligence Foundation (BAIF), University of Piraeus, University of Cyprus, pp. 1–6. IEEE (2017). https://doi.org/10.1109/IISA.2017.8316443. Accessed 15 Mar 2018
Al-Gunaid, M.A., Shcherbakov, M.V., Skorobogatchenko, D.A., Kravets, A.G., Kamaev, V.A.: Forecasting energy consumption with the data reliability estimation in the management of hybrid energy system using fuzzy decision trees. In: 7th International Conference on Information, Intelligence, Systems & Applications (IISA), Greece, 13–15 July 2016. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). IEEE (2016). http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/mostRecentIssue.jsp?punumber=7774711. https://doi.org/10.1109/IISA.2016.7785413
Kravets, A.G., Al-Gunaid, M.A., Loshmanov, V.I., Rasulov, S.S., Lempert, L.B.: Model of medicines sales forecasting taking into account factors of influence. In: Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2018, vol. 1015, 8 p. http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1015/3/032073/pdf
Kosko, B.: Fuzzy cognitive maps. Int. J. Man Mach. Stud. 24, 65–75 (1986)
Acknowledgement
The reported study was supported by RFBR research projects (19-47-340010/19).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Al-Gunaid, M.A., Shcherbakov, M.V., Trubitsin, V.N., Shumkin, A.M., Dereguzov, K.Y. (2019). Analysis a Short-Term Time Series of Crop Sales Based on Machine Learning Methods. In: Kravets, A., Groumpos, P., Shcherbakov, M., Kultsova, M. (eds) Creativity in Intelligent Technologies and Data Science. CIT&DS 2019. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1083. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-29743-5_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-29743-5_15
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-29742-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-29743-5
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)