Abstract
In this chapter, the stochastic modelling framework introduced in the previous chapter is extended to calculate the probable maximum backwater-level elevations PMFice that can be attained from ice jams. The PMFice represents a threshold water level below which ice jams can still remain intact for a certain period of time but above which the jam becomes unstable due to the increased forces on the jam leading to its release. An estimate of the PMFice is a useful value for both ice-jam flood forecasting and ice-jam flood risk management and mitigation. For example, the value can provide a benchmark for the design of the maximum crest elevation of dikes to defend against ice-jam flooding. Due to the stochastic nature of ice jamming, determining the PMFice is very difficult, particularly when data sets are sparse or incomplete. This chapter includes methods for augmenting sparse data sets for model setup, calibration and simulations.
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Lindenschmidt, KE. (2020). Probable Maximum Ice-Jam Flood. In: River Ice Processes and Ice Flood Forecasting. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28679-8_9
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