Advertisement

Analytics and the Future

  • Fred Phillips
Chapter
  • 208 Downloads
Part of the Science, Technology and Innovation Studies book series (STAIS)

Abstract

The chapter explores the extent to which mathematical analysis helps us see the future. It looks at the challenge today’s “big data” presents to our mathematical abilities. Beginning with explanations of linear, logistic (s-shaped), and exponential growth, the chapter notes the limits to growth and where they apply. It introduces the “reaction curve” that for an industry incumbent mirrors the well-known “hype curve.” Following a discussion of price–performance curves, it addresses demographic forecasting, Kondratieff waves, and real options. The chapter concludes by showing why automating some white-collar functions can resolve the principal-agent problem.

References

  1. Coccia M (2018) A theory of the general causes of long waves: war, general purpose technologies, and economic change. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 128:287–295CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Katzman BE, Verhoeven P, Baker HM (2009) Decision analysis and the principal–agent problem. Decis Sci J Innov Educ 7(1):51–57CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Linstone HA (1999) Complexity science: implications for forecasting. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 62(1–2):79–90CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. McKelvey JP (1985) Science and technology: the driven and the driver. Technol Rev 88:38–74Google Scholar
  5. Milanovic B (2016, February 24) Introducing Kuznets waves: how income inequality waxes and wanes over the very long run. Vox EUGoogle Scholar
  6. Phillips F (1999) A method for detecting a shift in a trend. PICMET ‘99, Proceedings of the Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering & Technology, Portland State University, Portland, OregonGoogle Scholar
  7. Phillips F (2007) On S-curves and tipping points. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 74(6):715–730CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Phillips F, George Hwang G, Limprayoon P (2016) Inflection points and industry change: was Andy Grove right after all? Int J Technol Manag Growing Econ 7(1):7–26Google Scholar
  9. Wu G (1993) Decision analysis. Harvard Business School Case 9-894-004, rev. December 4, 1997Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Fred Phillips
    • 1
  1. 1.Anderson School of ManagementUniversity of New MexicoAlbuquerqueUSA

Personalised recommendations