Expertise and the Future
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This chapter explores whether “experts” can see the future better than ordinary persons. The chapter introduces the Leapfrog Theory of Scientific Advance, and that theory’s implications for the kinds of expertise that must be sought, and developed. It describes the accession of the knowledge economy, noting traditional capitalists’ resistance to this shift, and the further resistance due to traditions of anti-intellectualism. The tendency of experts to look for answers only within their field of expertise—known as “hypocognition”—is noted. The chapter closes by describing a large expert survey which concludes medical and computer sciences are expected to produce the most potential for scientific breakthroughs in the next 35 years.
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