Summary and Conclusions

Abstract

This chapter makes general summary of the author’s research results contained in the previous chapters of the monograph. This work is related to planning and scheduling of transit voyages of vessels that do not have ice strengthening, through the Northern Sea Route between the ports of Europe and the Far East. There are very difficult ice navigation conditions, and there are dangers to shipping not found in other parts of the world. Duration of ice-free navigation, during which vessels without ice strengthened hull can navigate independently (without assistance of icebreakers), lasts from 0 to 35 days. Period of so-called navigation without participation of icebreakers, during which can navigate independently vessels with ice strengthened hulls (ice classes Arc5) suitable for ice conditions, lasts from 0 to 80 days. For the remaining period of time can navigate on the NSR vessels with high ice classes (at least Arc5) with icebreaker support. The provisions of the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping (RMRS) indicate that ships with low ice classes can navigate in areas outside the Arctic. At the same time, RMRS regulations and Rules for navigating on the Northern Sea Route provide vessels whose design is not adapted to navigation in ice to navigate on the NSR in certain ice conditions during summer season. This creates favourable conditions for seasonal use of vessels without ice strengthening, widely available and relatively cheap in construction and operation. High variability of ice distribution over time and in geographical space and possibility to encounter various difficulties in overcoming ice and to encounter various dangers to shipping makes it difficult to determine the right route, which in a given navigation season will ensure continuity of vessel’s movement towards destination with expected speed from beginning of voyage to the end. If planned schedule and route of voyage prove to be impossible without help of icebreakers or it will require waiting for improving ice conditions, there will be additional costs caused by longer time of chartering vessel and/or use of icebreakers. Long-term forecasts of ice conditions provided by the NSR Administration website in advance of 5 months are very generalized and do not allow precise determination of most probable route, date of opening of ice-free transit zone for vessels without ice strengthening or closing date of this zone in connection with commencing systematic build-up of ice cover. Probabilistic method for determining commencing date of voyage using historical data trend line was found the most convenient for initial voyage planning. Probability of successful completing of voyage in ice-free conditions developed at initial planning stage for particular parts of voyage (eastward and westward) could be used to forecast failure, difficulties and additional costs in achieving goal of voyage of two consecutive voyages. Results of conducted simulation have shown very short time of occurrence of ice-free conditions for transit shipping through the NSR. To reach goal of voyage, which was performance of two consecutive transit voyages through the NSR by vessel without ice strengthening and without use of expensive icebreaker services, required exact date of beginning of voyage at initial (long-term) stage of planning. At the end of the chapter presented suggestions how to schedule successful voyage on the stage of initial voyage planning by means of statistical data worked out by the author, before the forecasts of ice navigation conditions will be issued. Results obtained during voyage simulation have shown that proposed algorithm may be useful in a wider scope on each vessel, in consulting company or in vessel operator’s office for design of ice navigation planning support system. It was stressed that the implementation of initial voyage planning decision-making system in shipping companies of operators and charterers should increase use of vessels being on market or increase number of vessels on new shipping routes leading through the Northern Sea Route, reduce vessel operating costs, increase economic benefits of shipping companies and thus competitiveness of these enterprises on maritime transport market. Increasing employment of vessels should increase employment of employees in shipping companies on land as well as seafarers employed on board vessels and thus affect reduction of unemployment. Exploring new shipping line should support exporters of national shipping companies. All above factors should contribute to economic development of the region involved.