From 2016 to 2020: It’s the Economy, Still

Abstract

In this chapter, we discuss salient economic issues during the 2016 election and relate them to loss-frame perspectives—always with an eye on 2020. Using Prospect Theory, we analyze how loss aversion may have delivered Trump the presidency. We argue that a loss frame dominated a large portion of the population in 2016; people felt that the country was on a wrong path and that they themselves were on the ‘losing side’. Simultaneously, people were experiencing economic backlashes such as increasing income inequality and the decline of certain industries. Though an outsider, Trump utilized both the loss frame and the economic problems to his advantage in his campaign. Consequently, people were willing to make a risky choice in the presidential elections, hoping to avert further losses. Though other aspects such as identity and culture certainly played an important role, we argue that it was the economic factors that tipped the scale. As for the 2020 election, we argue that the economy is likely to be the decisive issue, as it was in 2016.