Forecasting Procedure Based on Full Information

Abstract

In this chapter we will look at the results obtained when trying to forecast the arrival of transitions exploiting the theory introduced in the previous section. This procedure requires full knowledge on the system, and in order to apply it one needs to know both the full structure of the network and the weights of each link. Despite being unrealistic and of difficult application, this procedure was thought as a necessary first test of the general validity of forecasting method. We will start with a general outline of the method, and then show the results of its application to the two models.