Abstract
Human migration, referring to people choosing to move not just because of a direct danger of persecution or death but also to improve their lives, is expected to grow rapidly in the near future. In this context, the recent Trans-Mediterranean region raised particular interest for the variety of migration routes and of institutional, social, cultural and economic issues. Further, the region is affected by many threats due to the interactions of climate change vulnerability, water scarcity and land degradation with the needs of increasingly urbanized populations and environmentally-intensive food production. The aim of this study is contributing to deepen the knowledge about the potential nexus among climate, geopolitics and migration across the Trans-Mediterranean region, through a comprehensive analysis, based on well consolidated and scientifically sound methods and data, about the climate-related hazards and their consequences on water and food availability. The findings suggest that the study region is increasingly facing a general warming and a decrease of water availability. The climate regime and hydrological cycle influence the agriculture, so that yields of the key energy and protein crops considered (wheat, maize, rice, soybean) seem highly endangered leading to an increase in irrigation needs posing additional pressures on the water sector. Building resilience for water resources and food production systems to climate change becomes thus crucial for the whole Trans-Mediterranean region. But while climate adaptation measures have to be implemented rapidly through agricultural practices, climate change mitigation cannot be neglected: in this context, the SDG agenda can provide robust foundations.
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Notes
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Exposure: The extent to which human society and its supporting sectors are stressed by the future changing climate conditions. Exposure captures the physical factors external to the system that contribute to vulnerability.
Sensitivity: The degree to which people and the sectors they depend upon are affected by climate related perturbations. The factors increasing sensitivity include the degree of dependency on sectors that are climate-sensitive and proportion of populations sensitive to climate hazard due to factors such as topography and demography.
Adaptive capacity: The ability of society and its supporting sectors to adjust to reduce potential damage and to respond to the negative consequences of climate events. Adaptive capacity indicators seek to capture a collection of means, readily deployable to deal with sector-specific climate change impacts.
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Economic Readiness: The investment capability that facilitates mobilizing capitals from private sector.
Governance Readiness: The stability of the society and institutional arrangements that contribute to the investment risks. In a stable country with high governance capacity investors are assured that the invested capitals could grow under the help of responsive public services and without significant interruption.
Social readiness: Social conditions that help society to make efficient and equitable use of investment and yield more benefit from the investment.
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South Sudan was comprised because country level data are available for the former Sudan according to the time period analysed.
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Excluded: Liechtenstein, Andorra, Gibraltar, San Marino, Vatican City because of their limited surface area.
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No data for Bahrain is available in FAOSTAT.
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Caporaso, L., Santini, M., Noce, S., de Sanctis, A., Caracciolo, L., Antonelli, M. (2019). Drivers of Migration in the Trans-Mediterranean Region: The Likely Role of Climate Change and Resource Security in the Geopolitical Context. In: Valentini, R., Sievenpiper, J., Antonelli, M., Dembska, K. (eds) Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals Through Sustainable Food Systems. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-23969-5_3
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