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From Belief to Behaviour

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The Psychology of Micro-Targeted Election Campaigns

Abstract

Our beliefs about the world are integral to how we can act within it. It may be tempting to assume that voters will support the candidate they believe is the best (or least bad) person for the job. Yet, beliefs do not deterministically yield corresponding behaviours. Competing preferences, inability, or force of habit may lead to behaviours that are incommensurate with our belief or intentions (failure to exercise regularly is a testament to this). Due to this, campaigns must employ strategies to change people’s beliefs and to influence their behaviour. This chapter explores the oft-fraught relationship between beliefs and behaviour.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The rule is: (Vij−Dj)2 – (Vij−Rj)2 where Vi represents the voter’s ideal position and Dj and Rj represent the ideological positions of the candidate in area j.

  2. 2.

    This depresses small parties and typically results in parliaments with 2–3 main parties compared with proportional representation, which often has parliaments with 6–9 parties.

  3. 3.

    It is unclear whether this is causally connected or correlated, as people who are more likely to vote might also be more likely to be friends, as they share political interests and may feel similarly about civic responsibility. Regardless, the impact of social networks and emulation of friends and family is palpable.

  4. 4.

    If this model of the voter is incorrect, it may have disastrous effects. We discuss the pitfalls of poor model assumptions, mistaken data analyses, or bad testing in Chap. 8.

  5. 5.

    There are numerous emotional states, which complicates the research (as each type of emotion may influence reasoning and decision-making differently). Foundationally, Ekman and Friesen (1971) argue for six basic emotions: anger, fear, disgust, surprise, happiness, and sadness.

  6. 6.

    For a general model of voters, see Lodge and Taber (2013).

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  1. Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Jens Koed Madsen

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Madsen, J.K. (2019). From Belief to Behaviour. In: The Psychology of Micro-Targeted Election Campaigns. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22145-4_5

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