Abstract
This chapter uses a model derived from project work on dementia and developed by the authors to explore how much diagnosis capacity is needed in order to achieve a target percentage of ‘people diagnosed’ of people with dementia. The target is always expressed as a ‘percentage of prevalence’. In England, the target is set at 67%.
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- 1.
Both amount to the same thing, a fraction of the stock departs every time unit (the model used in this chapter runs in months).
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This is the base incidence. Over the ten-year period, we increase incidence in line with the rise in the general population.
- 3.
The state ‘being diagnosed’ is a subset of the ‘undiagnosed’ stock, and is not shown in the simple model diagrams included here—we also take account of various other factors such as people waiting for a diagnosis, and if there is a backlog we also factor in that some people will move from mild to moderate or moderate to severe during the time that they are waiting for and being diagnosed.
- 4.
In fact, that number updates as the model runs, but this screen-shot shows the model at the end of a 10 year run.
- 5.
References
Alzheimers UK (2014) Dementia UK: Update. King’s College London and London School of Economics.
Matthews, F. E., Arthur, A., Barnes, L. E., Bond, J., Jagger, C., Robinson, L., et al. (2013). A two-decade comparison of prevalence of dementia in individuals aged 65 years and older from three geographical areas of England: Results of the cognitive function and ageing study I and II. Lancet, 382(9902), 1405–1412.
Matthews, F. E., Stephen, B. C. M., Robinson, L., Jagger, C., Barnes, L. E., Arthur, A., et al. (2016). A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the cognitive function and ageing studies I and II. Nature Communications, 7, 11398. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11398.
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Wolstenholme, E., McKelvie, D. (2019). The Impact of Diagnosis Targets for Long-Term Conditions: Dementia. In: The Dynamics of Care. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21878-2_13
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21878-2_13
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