Leaving the Club Without Slamming the Door: Brazil’s Return to Middle-Power Status

Abstract

The quest for status has long been an integral part of Brazil’s global strategy. Despite being a ‘monster country’ in terms of population and territory, Brazil has seldom resorted to traditional forms of power and coercion—be it economic or military—in its international relationships (Lafer, Daedalus 129(2):207–238, 2000). Therefore, Brazil’s global standing has largely depended on how it was perceived by other members of the international system. This chapter’s aim is to analyze the transition between Rousseff, who was subjected to an impeachment trial in May 2016, and her Vice President, Michel Temer, who remained in office until December 2018, from the perspective of Brazil’s international status. We argue that Brazil went through a ‘status downgrading’ process and sought to return to a condition of middle power, a move that involved specific patterns of signaling and accommodation. Our hypothesis is fourfold: first, signaling Brazil’s intentions to the world meant slowly changing the substance of bilateral relations, from big political ambitions to immediate trade and investment goals. Second, signaling in the region implied that Brazil progressively abandoned its regional leadership bid and subsumed its interests to trade-oriented relations with neighbors. Third, signaling to domestic audiences was also necessary and mostly made through newspaper op-eds, interviews, and press releases, which led government officials to an unprecedented engagement in the public debate. Fourth, and equally important, signaling was not always consistent, especially as divergences between the president and the foreign minister came to the surface.