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Introduction

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Abstract

This book examines the theory and practice of nuclear deterrence between India and Pakistan, two highly antagonistic South Asian neighbors who recently began their third decade of overt nuclear weaponization. In this introductory chapter, I first provide a brief overview of the Indo-Pakistani nuclear arms competition and some recent trends that threaten to undermine deterrence stability. I then give a synopsis of the underlying political context of Indo-Pakistani relations, focusing mainly on the dispute over the state of Jammu and Kashmir, which goes back to the partition of India and Pakistan when they gained their independence from Britain in August 1947. The combination of nuclear deterrence and continuing subconventional violence, such as the February 2019 attack on Indian forces in Pulwama, Kashmir, creates a kind of “ugly stability” that is unique in the nuclear era—and a main theme of the book. In the last section of this introduction, I preview the book’s organization by outlining the chapter topics and main arguments.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda, “Indian Nuclear Forces, 2018,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 74, no. 6 (November 2018): 361–66; Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris, and Julia Diamond, “Pakistani Nuclear Forces, 2018,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 74, no. 5 (August 2018): 348–58.

  2. 2.

    Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang, “India’s Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrine, and Capabilities,” International Security 43, no. 3 (Winter 2018/19): 7–52.

  3. 3.

    Vipin Narang, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2014), 55–120; Clary and Narang, “India’s Counterforce Temptations,” 36–38.

  4. 4.

    Yogesh Joshi and Frank O’Donnell, India and Nuclear Asia: Forces, Doctrine, and Dangers (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2019), 34–38.

  5. 5.

    Devin T. Hagerty, “India’s Evolving Nuclear Posture,” Nonproliferation Review 21, nos. 3–4 (September–December 2014): 297–310.

  6. 6.

    Robert Jervis, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1990), 1–45.

  7. 7.

    Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (New York: Oxford University Press, 1963), 207–29. This concept captures the crisis dynamic in which each side fears that the other is about to strike one’s own nuclear forces preemptively, generating a mutual temptation to “use rather than lose” one’s nuclear forces.

  8. 8.

    Both estimates are from Yasmin Khan, The Great Partition: The Making of India and Pakistan, 2nd ed. (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2017), 6.

  9. 9.

    Sumit Ganguly and Devin T. Hagerty, Fearful Symmetry: India-Pakistan Crises in the Shadow of Nuclear Weapons (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2005), 82–115.

  10. 10.

    “Nadir in the Valley: India’s Government is Intensifying a Failed Strategy in Kashmir,” The Economist, March 7, 2019.

  11. 11.

    Farhan Bokhari and Amy Kazmin, “Pakistan Launches Crackdown on Militants,” Financial Times, March 6, 2019.

  12. 12.

    Ashley J. Tellis, Stability in South Asia (Santa Monica: RAND, 1997), vii, 30–33. Tellis invented this concept and accurately predicted its enduring usefulness as a descriptor of the India-Pakistan strategic equation.

  13. 13.

    George Perkovich, “The Non-Unitary Model and Deterrence Stability in South Asia,” in Deterrence Stability and Escalation Control in South Asia, eds. Michael Krepon and Julia Thompson (Washington, DC: Stimson Center, 2013), 21–40.

  14. 14.

    McGeorge Bundy, “Existential Deterrence and Its Consequences,” in The Security Gamble: Deterrence Dilemmas in the Nuclear Age, ed. Douglas MacLean (Totowa, NJ: Rowman and Allanheld, 1984), 3–13.

  15. 15.

    Narang, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era, 13–54.

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Hagerty, D.T. (2020). Introduction. In: Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence Stability in South Asia. Palgrave Pivot, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21398-5_1

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