Abstract
The paper compares the findings provided by empirical and physically-based models in estimating future evolutions in landslide occurrence as a consequence of the ongoing Climate Change. As test case, the phenomena affecting pyroclastic covers on Lattari Mts. (Campania Region) are considered. Simulation chains developed for both the approaches, pros and cons are carefully displayed pointing out the uncertainties currently associated to projections and the main gaps to bridge. Whatever the approach, an increase is expected but the relative magnitude and the evolution is deeply influenced by impact tools beyond the selected climate projections and concentration scenarios.
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Rianna, G., Reder, A., Pagano, L., Mercogliano, P. (2020). Assessing Future Variations in Landslide Occurrence Due to Climate Changes: Insights from an Italian Test Case. In: Calvetti, F., Cotecchia, F., Galli, A., Jommi, C. (eds) Geotechnical Research for Land Protection and Development. CNRIG 2019. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering , vol 40. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21359-6_27
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21359-6_27
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