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Rural Migration Patterns in the Visegrad Group

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Three Decades of Transformation in the East-Central European Countryside

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Abstract

The countries of the Visegrad Group share a lot of similarities in their historical development and socio-economic attributes. The next to last chapter of their history, the socialist era with its centrally planned economy also had a homogenizing effect on the four countries in many aspects, including the migration patterns. However, after the political and economic transition, the rural migration processes of the Visegrad Group became more diversified. With the disappearance of the earlier hindrances, the rapidly emerging suburbanisation quickly became the most apparent migration trend of the post-socialist era. Other new migratory movements, like amenity migration/counterurbanization gained only limited space and attention so far, and their future significance is uncertain. However, a large part of the rural space in the Visegrad countries is still characterised with rural outmigration. With the application of different explanatory variables describing environmental conditions, socioeconomic attributes and relative location, this paper aims to explore the driving forces behind the rural migration patterns of the Visegrad group after the political and economic transition and to reveal the common features and country-specific traits of the process.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Regional Studies, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences (MTA KRTK RKI), Pecs, Hungary

    József Lennert

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Polish Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Warsaw, Poland

    Jerzy Bański

Appendix

Appendix

A detailed description (R square, standardised beta coefficients, significance levels) of the multiple linear regression models presented in Figs. 6.5 and 6.6 (own elaboration based on the data from EEA, Corine Land Cover, Google Maps, KSH, GUS, ČSÚ and ŠÚ).

Poland

Dependent variable

Yearly average migration rate 1995–2001

 

R square

0.363

 

Explanatory variables

Standardised beta coefficients

Significance level

Population size

0.262

0.000

Elevation

0.005

0.786

Sh. of protected areas

0.005

0.788

Sh. of Natura 2000 areas

0.039

0.045

Sh. of forests

−0.478

0.000

Sh. of agricultural areas

−0.594

0.000

Unemployment rate

−0.162

0.000

Distance of capital

−0.002

0.914

Distance of city over 100,000 inhabitants

−0.254

0.000

Distance of city over 50,000 inhabitants

−0.046

0.044

Distance of city over 30,000 inhabitants

−0.104

0.000

Dependent variable

Yearly average migration rate 2001–2011

R square

0.367

Explanatory variables

Standardised beta coefficients

Significance level

Population size

0.303

0.000

Elevation

−0.068

0.000

Sh. of protected areas

−0.016

0.368

Sh. of Natura 2000 areas

0.055

0.004

Sh. of forests

−0.052

0.144

Sh. of agricultural areas

−0.176

0.000

Unemployment rate

−0.184

0.000

Distance of capital

−0.044

0.014

Distance of city over 100,000 inhabitants

−0.233

0.000

Distance of city over 50,000 inhabitants

−0.106

0.000

Distance of city over 30,000 inhabitants

0.098

0.000

Czechia

Dependent variable

Yearly average migration rate 1990–2000

R square

0.071

Explanatory variables

Standardised beta coefficients

Significance level

Population size

0.091

0.000

Elevation

0.002

0.921

Sh. of protected areas

0.032

0.036

Sh. of Natura 2000 areas

0.029

0.059

Sh. of forests

−0.156

0.000

Sh. of agricultural areas

−0.231

0.000

Unemployment rate

0.026

0.087

Distance of capital

−0.066

0.000

Distance of city over 100,000 inhabitants

−0.003

0.830

Distance of city over 50,000 inhabitants

−0.148

0.000

Distance of city over 30,000 inhabitants

−0.032

0.089

Dependent variable

Yearly average migration rate 2001–2011

R square

0.195

Explanatory variables

Standardised beta coefficients

Significance level

Population size

−0.056

0.000

Elevation

−0.043

0.006

Sh. of protected areas

−0.019

0.184

Sh. of Natura 2000 areas

0.026

0.070

Sh. of forests

−0.096

0.006

Sh. of agricultural areas

−0.198

0.000

Unemployment rate

−0.059

0.000

Distance of capital

−0.255

0.000

Distance of city over 100,000 inhabitants

−0.063

0.000

Distance of city over 50,000 inhabitants

−0.190

0.000

Distance of city over 30,000 inhabitants

−0.063

0.000

Slovakia

Dependent variable

Yearly average migration rate 1996–2000

R square

0.061

Explanatory variables

Standardised beta coefficients

Significance level

Population size

0.033

0.104

Elevation

−0.077

0.019

Sh. of protected areas

0.009

0.698

Sh. of Natura 2000 areas

−0.055

0.023

Sh. of forests

−0.341

0.000

Sh. of agricultural areas

−0.323

0.000

Unemployment rate

0.111

0.000

Distance of capital

−0.151

0.000

Distance of city over 100,000 inhabitants

−0.002

0.950

Distance of city over 50,000 inhabitants

−0.039

0.245

Distance of city over 30,000 inhabitants

−0.103

0.001

Dependent variable

Yearly average migration rate 2001–2011

R square

0.126

Explanatory variables

Standardised beta coefficients

Significance level

Population size

−0.072

0.000

Elevation

−0.043

0.173

Sh. of protected areas

−0.007

0.747

Sh. of Natura 2000 areas

0.018

0.443

Sh. of forests

−0.189

0.004

Sh. of agricultural areas

−0.144

0.034

Unemployment rate

−0.006

0.852

Distance of capital

−0.228

0.000

Distance of city over 100,000 inhabitants

−0.075

0.003

Distance of city over 50,000 inhabitants

−0.056

0.087

Distance of city over 30,000 inhabitants

−0.116

0.000

Hungary

Dependent variable

Yearly average migration rate 1990–2001

R square

0.203

Explanatory variables

Standardised beta coefficients

Significance level

Population size

0.150

0.000

Elevation

0.031

0.182

Sh. of protected areas

0.031

0.189

Sh. of Natura 2000 areas

0.025

0.297

Sh. of forests

−0.045

0.225

Sh. of agricultural areas

−0.007

0.845

Unemployment rate

0.042

0.332

Distance of capital

0.186

0.000

Distance of city over 100,000 inhabitants

0.081

0.000

Distance of city over 50,000 inhabitants

0.143

0.000

Distance of city over 30,000 inhabitants

0.089

0.000

Dependent variable

Yearly average migration rate 2001–2011

R square

0.226

Explanatory variables

Standardised beta coefficients

Significance level

Population size

0.097

0.000

Elevation

0.064

0.005

Sh. of protected areas

0.026

0.258

Sh. of Natura 2000 areas

0.013

0.584

Sh. of forests

−0.268

0.000

Sh. of agricultural areas

−0.239

0.000

Unemployment rate

−0.144

0.000

Distance of capital

0.179

0.000

Distance of city over 100,000 inhabitants

0.047

0.022

Distance of city over 50,000 inhabitants

0.132

0.000

Distance of city over 30,000 inhabitants

0.073

0.001

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Lennert, J. (2019). Rural Migration Patterns in the Visegrad Group. In: Bański, J. (eds) Three Decades of Transformation in the East-Central European Countryside. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21237-7_6

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