Abstract
The GW index and its corresponding SSTA pattern reproduced by the externally forced CMIP5 simulations and the observed one are characterized in this chapter. The impact of the GW patterns on precipitation in the Sahel and the northern Brazilian regions of the Amazon and the Northeast is also identified and analyzed. Historical simulations of the 20th century allow to compare the results with observations, while the analysis of future projections provide an insight of how the GW influence on rainfall in the regions of study might be along the current century.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Ackerley, D., Booth, B.B., Knight, S.H., Highwood, E.J., Frame, D.J., Allen, M.R., Rowell, D.P.: Sensitivity of twentieth-century Sahel rainfall to sulfate aerosol and CO\(_2\) forcing. J. Clim. 24, 4999–5014 (2011)
Andrews, T., Gregory, J.M., Webb, M.J., Taylor, K.E.: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 (2012)
Biasutti, M., Giannini, A.: Robust Sahel drying in response to late 20th century forcings, Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L11 706 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026067
Biasutti, M., Sobel, A.H.: Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 (2009)
Biasutti, M.: Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 1613–1623 (2013)
Cook, K.H., Vizy, E.K.: Coupled model simulations of the West African monsoon system: twentieth-and twenty-first-century simulations. J. Clim. 19, 3681–3703 (2006)
Ekman, A.M.: Do sophisticated parameterizations of aerosol-cloud interactions in CMIP5 models improve the representation of recent observed temperature trends? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 119, 817–832 (2014)
Folland, C.K., Colman, A.W., Rowell, D.P., Davey, M.K.: Predictability of northeast Brazil rainfall and real-time forecast skill, 1987–98. J. Clim. 14, 1937–1958 (2001)
Folland, C., Palmer, T., Parker, D.: Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901–85. Nature 320, 602–607 (1986)
Friedman, A.R., Hwang, Y.-T., Chiang, J.C., Frierson, D.M.: Interhemispheric temperature asymmetry over the twentieth century and in future projections. J. Clim. 26, 5419–5433 (2013)
Gaetani, M., Fontaine, B., Roucou, P., Baldi, M.: Influence of the Mediterranean Sea on the West African monsoon: intraseasonal variability in numerical simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 115 (2010)
Gaetani, M., Flamant, C., Bastin, S., Janicot, S., Lavaysse, C., Hourdin, F., Braconnot, P., Bony, S.: West African monsoon dynamics and precipitation: the competition between global SST warming and CO\(_2\) increase in CMIP5 idealized simulations. Clim. Dyn. 48, 1353–1373 (2017)
Giannini, A., Salack, S., Lodoun, T., Ali, A., Gaye, A.T., Ndiaye, O.: A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, interannual and longer time scales. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 024010 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024010
Giannini, A.: Mechanisms of climate change in the semiarid African Sahel: the local view. J. Clim. 23, 743–756 (2010)
Grodsky, S.A., Carton, J.A., Nigam, S.: Near surface westerly wind jet in the Atlantic ITCZ. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 3–6 (2003)
Hansen, J., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., Willis, J., Del Genio, A., Koch, D., Lacis, A., Lo, K., Menon, S., et al.: Earth’s energy imbalance: confirmation and implications. Science 308, 1431–1435 (2005)
Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C., Cox, P.M.: Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 363, 1753–1759 (2008)
Hastenrath, S., Greischar, L.: Circulation mechanisms related to northeast Brazil rainfall anomalies. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 98, 5093–5102 (1993)
Hwang, Y.-T., Frierson, D.M., Kang, S.M.: Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol and the southward shift of tropical precipitation in the late 20th century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 2845–2850 (2013)
Joetzjer, E., Douville, H., Delire, C., Ciais, P.: Present-day and future Amazonian precipitation in global climate models: CMIP5 versus CMIP3. Clim. Dyn. 41, 2921–2936 (2013)
Kim, H., An, S.-I.: On the subarctic North Atlantic cooling due to global warming. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 114, 9–19 (2013)
Luo, J.-J., Sasaki, W., Masumoto, Y.: Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 109, pp. 18701–18706 (2012)
Luo, J.-J., Wang, G., Dommenget, D.: May common model biases reduce CMIP5’s ability to simulate the recent Pacific La Niña-like cooling? Clim. Dyn. 1–17 (2017)
Marengo, J.A., Jones, R., Alves, L., Valverde, M.: Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. Int. J. Climatol. 29, 2241–2255 (2009)
Meehl, G.A., Hu, A., Arblaster, J.M., Fasullo, J., Trenberth, K.E.: Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the interdecadal pacific oscillation, J. Clim. 26, 7298–7310 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1
Meehl, G.A., Washington, W.M., Ammann, C.M., Arblaster, J.M., Wigley, T., Tebaldi, C.: Combinations of natural and anthropogenic forcings in twentieth-century climate. J. Clim. 17, 3721–3727 (2004)
Ming, Y., Ramaswamy, V.: A model investigation of aerosol-induced changes in tropical circulation. J. Clim. 24, 5125–5133 (2011)
Monerie, P.-A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Boé, J.: On the range of future Sahel precipitation projections and the selection of a sub-sample of CMIP5 models for impact studies. Clim. Dyn. 48, 2751–2770 (2017)
Park, J.-Y., Bader, J., Matei, D.: Northern-hemispheric differential warming is the key to understanding the discrepancies in the projected Sahel rainfall. Nat. Commun. 6, 5985 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6985
Riahi, K., Grübler, A., Nakicenovic, N.: Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 74, 887–935 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.026
Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., Suárez-Moreno, R., Ayarzagüena, B., López-Parages, J., Gómara, I., Villamayor, J., Mohino, E., Losada, T., Castaño-Tierno, A.: A review of ENSO influence on the North Atlantic. A non-stationary signal. Atmosphere 7, 87 (2016)
Rotstayn, L.D., Lohmann, U.: Tropical rainfall trends and the indirect aerosol effect. J. Clim. 15, 2103–2116 (2002)
Rotstayn, L.D., Collier, M.A., Shindell, D.T., Boucher, O.: Why does aerosol forcing control historical global-mean surface temperature change in CMIP5 models? J. Clim. 28, 6608–6625 (2015)
Seth, A., Rauscher, S.A., Biasutti, M., Giannini, A., Camargo, S.J., Rojas, M.: CMIP5 projected changes in the annual cycle of precipitation in monsoon regions. J. Clim. 26, 7328–7351 (2013)
Solomon, A., Newman, M.: Reconciling disparate twentieth-century Indo-Pacific ocean temperature trends in the instrumental record. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 691–699 (2012)
Song, X., Zhang, G.J.: Role of climate feedback in El Niño-like SST response to global warming. J. Clim. 27, 7301–7318 (2014)
Stott, P.A., Tett, S., Jones, G., Allen, M., Mitchell, J., Jenkins, G.: External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Science 290, 2133–2137 (2000)
Taylor, K.E., Stouffer, R.J., Meehl, G.A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012)
Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J.T.: An apparent hiatus in global warming? Earth’s Future 1, 19–32 (2013)
Villamayor, J., Ambrizzi, T., Mohino, E.: Influence of decadal sea surface temperature variability on northern Brazil rainfall in CMIP5 simulations. Clim. Dyn. 51, 563–579 (2018)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Villamayor, J. (2020). Influence of the GW. In: Influence of the Sea Surface Temperature Decadal Variability on Tropical Precipitation: West African and South American Monsoon. Springer Theses. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20327-6_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20327-6_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-20326-9
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-20327-6
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)