Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Influence of the Sea Surface Temperature Decadal Variability on Tropical Precipitation: West African and South American Monsoon pp 55–77Cite as

Data and Methodology

  • Chapter
  • First Online:

  • 207 Accesses

Part of the book series: Springer Theses ((Springer Theses))

Abstract

The relationship between the main modes of SST variability and rainfall at decadal time scales is addressed in this Ph.D. Thesis through the analysis of simulations of several GCMs. In addition, one AGCM is also used for the realization of experiments designed to study the occurrence of a long rainy period in the late-19th century. In parallel, observational data from gridded data bases and reanalysis are also used to make a comparison with the results obtained from the simulations. To analyze all the climatic variables and distinguish the links among them, discriminant analysis and other statistical techniques are used. This chapter describes the main characteristics of the GCMs and simulations analyzed, the experimental design, the observational data and the methodology used throughout this Thesis.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   159.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    The initial ensemble has been used to show that 5 realizations are enough to extract a significant signal from the internal weather noise on the ensemble mean (see Chap. 7).

  2. 2.

    The covariance and the variance are indistinctly denoted in this Thesis as \(\sigma _{xy}^{2}\) and \(\sigma _{x}^{2}\) or as Cov[x, y] and Var[x], respectively.

References

  • Arblaster, J., Meehl, G., Moore, A.: Interdecadal modulation of Australian rainfall. Clim. Dyn. 18, 519–531 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baines, P.G., Folland, C.K.: Evidence for a rapid global climate shift across the late 1960s. J. Clim. 20, 2721–2744 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Butterworth, S.: On the theory of filter amplifiers. Wirel. Eng. 7, 536–541 (1930)

    Google Scholar 

  • Caminade, C., Terray, L.: Twentieth century Sahel rainfall variability as simulated by the ARPEGE AGCM, and future changes. Clim. Dyn. 35, 75–94 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Compo, G.P., Whitaker, J.S., Sardeshmukh, P.D., Matsui, N., Allan, R.J., Yin, X., Gleason, B.E., Vose, R.S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P., et al.: The twentieth century reanalysis project. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 1–28 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diamond, M.S., Bennartz, R.: Occurrence and trends of eastern and central Pacific El Niño in different reconstructed SST data sets. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M.-A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., et al.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 earth system model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim. Dyn. 40, 2123–2165 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ebisuzaki, W.: A method to estimate the statistical significance of a correlation when the data are serially correlated. J. Clim. 10, 2147–2153 (1997)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enfield, D.B., Mestas-Nuñez, A.M., Trimble, P.J.: The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28 2077–2080 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012745

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gallego, D., Ordóñez, P., Ribera, P., Peña-Ortiz, C., García-Herrera, R.: An instrumental index of the West African Monsoon back to the nineteenth century. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 141, 3166–3176 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gorgas, J., Cardiel, N., Zamorano, J.: ESTADÍSTICA BÁSICA para estudiantes de Ciencias (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  • Harris, I., Jones, P., Osborn, T., Lister, D.: Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations–the CRU TS3. 10 Dataset. Int. J. Climatol. 34, 623–642 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Henley, B.J., Gergis, J., Karoly, D.J., Power, S., Kennedy, J., Folland, C.K.: A tripole index for the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. Clim. Dyn. 45, 3077–3090 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holton, J.: An Introduction to Dynamical Meteorology, 4th edn. Elsevier Academic Press (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  • Hourdin, F., Foujols, M.-A., Codron, F., Guemas, V., Dufresne, J.-L., Bony, S., Denvil, S., Guez, L., Lott, F., Ghattas, J., et al.: Impact of the LMDZ atmospheric grid configuration on the climate and sensitivity of the IPSL-CM5A coupled model. Clim. Dyn. 40, 2167–2192 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang, B., Banzon, V.F., Freeman, E., Lawrimore, J., Liu, W., Peterson, T.C., Smith, T.M., Thorne, P.W., Woodruff, S.D., Zhang, H.-M.: Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: upgrades and intercomparisons. J. Clim. 28, 911–930 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang, B., Thorne, P.W., Smith, T.M., Liu, W., Lawrimore, J., Banzon, V.F., Zhang, H.-M., Peterson, T.C., Menne, M.: Further exploring and quantifying uncertainties for extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) version 4 (v4). J. Clim. 29, 3119–3142 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knight, J.R.: A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L20 708 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024233

  • Krinner, G., Viovy, N., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ogée, J., Polcher, J., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., Prentice, I.C.: A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 19 (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, W., Huang, B., Thorne, P.W., Banzon, V.F., Zhang, H.-M., Freeman, E., Lawrimore, J., Peterson, T.C., Smith, T.M., Woodruff, S.D.: Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4): Part II. Parametric and structural uncertainty estimations. J. Clim. 28, 931–951 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz, E.N.: Empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather prediction. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology (1956)

    Google Scholar 

  • Mann, M.E.: On smoothing potentially non-stationary climate time series. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marengo, J.A.: Interdecadal variability and trends of rainfall across the Amazon basin. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 78, 79–96 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-004-0045-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martin, E.R., Thorncroft, C., Booth, B.B.B.: The multidecadal Atlantic SST-Sahel rainfall teleconnection in CMIP5 simulations. J. Clim. 27, 784–806 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00242.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl, G.A., Hu, A., Arblaster, J.M., Fasullo, J., Trenberth, K.E.: Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. J. Clim. 26, 7298–7310 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl, G.A., Washington, W.M., Ammann, C.M., Arblaster, J.M., Wigley, T., Tebaldi, C.: Combinations of natural and anthropogenic forcings in twentieth-century climate. J. Clim. 17, 3721–3727 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl, G.A., Goddard, L., Murphy, J., Stouffer, R.J., Boer, G., Danabasoglu, G., Dixon, K., Giorgetta, M.A., Greene, A.M., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G., Karoly, D., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Navarra, A., Pulwarty, R., Smith, D., Stammer, D., Stockdale, T.: Decadal prediction. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 90, 1467–1485 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mestas-Nuñez, A.M., Enfield, D.B.: Rotated global modes of non-ENSO sea surface temperature variability. J. Clim. 12, 2734–2746 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mohino, E., Janicot, S., Bader, J.: Sahel rainfall and decadal to multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability. Clim. Dyn. 37, 419–440 (2011a). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0867-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mohino, E., Keenlyside, N., Pohlmann, H.: Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from? Clim. Dyn. 47, 3593–3612 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parker, D., Folland, C., Scaife, A., Knight, J., Colman, A., Baines, P., Dong, B.: Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 112 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  • Poli, P., Hersbach, H., Tan, D., Dee, D., Thépaut, J.-n., Simmons, A., Peubey, C., Laloyaux, P., Komori, T., Berrisford, P., Dragani, R.: ERA report series, p. 59 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  • Power, S., Casey, T., Folland, C., Colman, A., Mehta, V.: Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim. Dyn. 15, 319–324 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayner, N., Parker, D.E., Horton, E., Folland, C., Alexander, L., Rowell, D., Kent, E., Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 108 (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  • Riahi, K., Grübler, A., Nakicenovic, N.: Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 74, 887–935 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.026

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sato, M., Hansen, J.E., McCormick, M.P., Pollack, J.B.: Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850–1990. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 98 22987–22994 (1993)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, U., Becker, A., Finger, P., Meyer-Christoffer, A., Rudolf, B., Ziese, M.: GPCC full data reanalysis version 7.0: monthly land-surface precipitation from rain gauges built on GTS based and historic data (2016). https://doi.org/10.5065/D6000072

  • Smith, T.M., Reynolds, R.W., Peterson, T.C., Lawrimore, J.: Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J. Clim. 21, 2283–2296 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, K.E., Stouffer, R.J., Meehl, G.A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ting, M., Kushnir, Y., Seager, R., Li, C.: Forced and internal Twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic*. J. Clim. 22, 1469–1481 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2561.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth, K.E., Shea, D.J.: Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, 1–4 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026894

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • von Storch, H., Frankignoul, C.: Empirical modal decomposition in coastal oceanography. In: The Global Coastal Ocean: Processes and Methods, vol. 10, p. 419 (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  • von Storch, H., Zwiers, F.W.: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilks, D.S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 91 (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  • Willmott, C.J., Matsuura, K., Legates, D.: Terrestrial air temperature and precipitation: monthly and annual time series (1950–1999). Center for climate research version 1 (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M., Battisti, D.S.: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93. J. Clim. 10, 1004–1020 (1997)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zwiers, F.: Interannual variability and predictability in an ensemble of AMIP climate simulations conducted with the CCC GCM2. Clim. Dyn. 12, 825–847 (1996)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain

    Julián Villamayor

Authors
  1. Julián Villamayor
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Julián Villamayor .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Villamayor, J. (2020). Data and Methodology. In: Influence of the Sea Surface Temperature Decadal Variability on Tropical Precipitation: West African and South American Monsoon. Springer Theses. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20327-6_2

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation