Nefarious Actors: An Agent-Based Analysis of Threats to the Democratic Process

Abstract

Recent election cycles in the United States and in other democracies have often been accompanied by accusations of hacking, meddling, disinformation, and voter suppression by non-state actors as well as elected government officials. Such threats pose a grave danger to the perceived legitimacy of democratic elections and public trust in the institutions upon which representative democracy relies. This paper utilizes an agent-based modeling approach to simulate the impact of actions by nefarious state and non-state actors on voter turnout, trust in electoral democracy, misrepresentation, and the potential for political conflict. Through repeated simulation and the development of a landscape of plausible futures, this paper uncovers means by which the electoral process may be most sensitive to attack. Given that the potential erosion of trust in elections poses an existential threat to democracy itself, this paper should provide valuable insight for those who seek to preserve and protect the most fundamental elements of liberal democracy.