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New York’s 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts: The Blue Wave Overwhelms the Red Tide

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Abstract

Republicans faced the challenge of defending two first-term US House members in swing districts in upstate New York. Both had defeated strong Democratic challengers in 2016, as Donald Trump carried both districts while losing the state to Hillary Clinton. In 2018, John Faso and Claudia Tenney were vulnerable. Both had supported the repeal of “Obamacare” and Tenney backed Trump’s tax bill, measures that were not popular in New York. Both seats were rated as “toss up” by the Cook Political Report and Roll Call ranked Faso and Tenney as the fifth and sixth most vulnerable incumbents in the House, and Democrats saw them as an opportunity to pick up two of the 23 needed to flip the House of Representatives.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Bridget Bowman, “Cuomo Wants to Unseat House Republicans, But Will It Work?” Roll Call, June 7, 2017, https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/andrew-cuomo-republicans-new-york. The six Republican members of the House Cuomo targeted were Lee Zeldin, Chris Collins, Elise Stefanik, Tom Reed, and Faso and Tenney. All represented districts Trump carried in 2016.

  2. 2.

    Charlie Cook, “2018 House Ratings,” The Cook Political Report, November 5, 2018, https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings. “Six Months Out: The 10 Most Vulnerable House Incumbents,” Roll Call, May 10, 2018, https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/six-months-10-vulnerable-house-incumbents

  3. 3.

    New York State Board of Elections, NYS Voter Enrollment by Congressional District, Party Affiliation and Status; Voters Registered as of November 1, 2016.

  4. 4.

    New York State Board of Elections, NYS Board of Elections Representatives in Congress Election Returns November 8, 2016; revised March 7, 2017.

  5. 5.

    New York State Board of Elections, NYS Board of Elections Representatives in Congress Election Returns November 6, 2012.

  6. 6.

    New York State Board of Elections, 2017.

  7. 7.

    New York State Board of Elections, 2012.

  8. 8.

    “Lost Rondout: A Story of Urban Removal” by Stephen Blauweiss and Lynn Woods, 2016, http://www.lostrondoutproject.com/

  9. 9.

    Keith H. Hammonds, “The Town IBM Left Behind,” Bloomberg, September 11, 1995. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/1995-09-10/the-town-ibm-left-behind

  10. 10.

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  11. 11.

    Ben Axelson, “Utica Named Among 5 Worst U.S. cities for Business and Careers.” Syracuse.com , September 1, 2015, https://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2015/09/central_ny_city_is_among_10_worst_places_for_business_and_careers.html

  12. 12.

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  13. 13.

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  14. 14.

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  15. 15.

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  16. 16.

    Brian Tumulty, “Faso, Heaney to Face off in GOP Primary.” Poughkeepsie Journal, June 25, 2016, https://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/story/news/2016/06/24/faso-heaney-face-off-gop-primary/86258024/

  17. 17.

    John Faso, “Faso Issues Statement on Executive Order.” Press release. United States House of Representatives, January 30, 2017.

  18. 18.

    Jim Poole, “Congressman John Faso Weighs in on New President,” Times-Journal. February 15, 2017. http://www.timesjournalonline.com/article.asp?id=101812

  19. 19.

    “Tracking Congress in the Age of Trump: John J. Faso,” FiveThirtyEight, October 10, 2018, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/john-j-faso/

  20. 20.

    “Rep. John Faso on GOP Tax Bill,” on NPR Weekend Edition, November 18, 2017, https://www.npr.org/2017/11/18/565025356/rep-john-faso-on-gop-tax-bill

  21. 21.

    Jim Poole, “Faso Defends Trump, Blasts Critics.” Times-Journal, September 12, 2018, http://www.timesjournalonline.com/article.asp?id=104028

  22. 22.

    Jake Offenhartz, “Trump Endorses John Faso In Tight Upstate NY House Race,” Gothamist, October 23, 2018, http://gothamist.com/2018/10/23/faso_delgado_congressional_race.php

  23. 23.

    Jake Lahut, “Delgado on Top of Crowded Dem Field to Challenge Faso,” Daily Gazette, June 26, 2018, https://dailygazette.com/article/2018/06/26/delgado-on-top-of-crowded-dem-field-to-challenge-faso. The other candidates in the Democratic field were Brian Flynn, a businessman and progressive activist from Greene County; Gareth Rhodes of Ulster County, a former press aide to Governor Cuomo; Jeffrey Beals, a teacher who had served as a CIA intelligence officer and a U.S. diplomat, of Ulster Count; Pat Ryan, a West Point graduate who had been deployed twice to Iraq, from Ulster County; attorney David Clegg from Ulster County and Erin Collier, an economist, from Otsego County. Beals had the endorsement of Senator Bernie Sanders and Rhodes was endorsed by The New York Times in the primary.

  24. 24.

    “Ballot Petition Nixed for ‘Law and Order’ Actress Diane Neal,” U.S. News, August 24, 2018, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-york/articles/2018-08-24/ballot-petition-nixed-for-law-and-order-actress-diane-neal

  25. 25.

    “ELECTION 2018: Diane Neal Wins Court Battle to Appear on 19th Congressional District Ballot.” Daily Freeman, September 17, 2018, https://www.dailyfreeman.com/news/elections/election-diane-neal-wins-court-battle-to-appear-on-th/article_aa0930c6-ba92-11e8-94a7-1383af0779f1.html

  26. 26.

    Mark Weiner, “Rep. Richard Hanna Endorses Steve Wells to Succeed Him in Congress.” Syracuse.com , June 23, 2016, http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/06/rep_richard_hanna_endorses_steve_wells_to_succeed_him_in_congress.html

  27. 27.

    John R. Roby, “GOP Voters Nominate Tenney for Hanna’s Seat,” Pressconnects, June 29, 2016, http://www.pressconnects.com/story/news/local/2016/06/28/republicans-go-polls-congressional-primary/86349486/

  28. 28.

    Debra J. Groom, “Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney -- A Master of Many Jobs.” Syracuse.com , March 5, 2011. https://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2011/03/assemblywoman_claudia_tenney_-.html

  29. 29.

    “Tracking Congress in the Age of Trump: Claudia Tenney,” FiveThirtyEight, October 10, 2018, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/claudia-tenney/

  30. 30.

    David Klepper, “A Trump Stalwart Softens Her Tone in Pivotal US House Race.” Associated Press, https://www.apnews.com/13a5c4da7b994943933e4dd8ab2f8744

  31. 31.

    Genevieve Shuster, “On Claudia Tenney and the Parkland Shooting: Partisan Rhetoric Damages Legislative Possibilities,” The (Hamilton College) Spectator, March 1, 2018, https://spec.hamilton.edu/on-claudia-tenney-and-the-parkland-shooting-partisan-rhetoric-damages-legislative-possibilities-ad2222779184

  32. 32.

    Shane Goldmacher, “Congresswoman Says Many Mass Murderers ‘End Up Being Democrats,’” New York Times, February 22, 2018: A21.

  33. 33.

    Mark Weiner, “Donald Trump Raised $650,000 for Claudia Tenney, GOP in Utica visit,” Syracuse.com , October 16, 2018, https://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/10/donald_trump_raised_650000_for_claudia_tenney_gop_in_utica_visit.html

  34. 34.

    Klepper.

  35. 35.

    Jim Rondenelli, “Brindisi Launches 21st Century Education Initiative,” WIBX, http://wibx950.com/brindisi-launches-21st-century-education-initiative/

  36. 36.

    Jacob Pramuk, “This Bitter House Race in New York Shows How Health Care Is Dominating the Battle for Congress,” CNBC, October 18, 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/17/health-care-defines-ny19-house-race-between-john-faso-antonio-delgado.html

  37. 37.

    Pramuk.

  38. 38.

    Andrew Solender, “The NY-19 Contest Is Becoming a Race About Race,” City and State, https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/ny-19-john-faso-antonio-delgado-race-about-race.html

  39. 39.

    Astead W. Herndon, “A Congressional Candidate Used to Be a Rapper. Will It Matter?” New York Times, July 18, 2018: A19.

  40. 40.

    “NYT Response, Statement by Dr. Gerald Benjamin.” The Benjamin Center, SUNY New Paltz, July 26, 2018.

  41. 41.

    Nina Schutzman, “6 Takeaways: Faso, Delgado Spar on Health Care, Immigration, more,” Poughkeepsie Journal, https://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/story/news/2018/10/11/5-takeaways-faso-delgado-spar-health-care-immigration-more/1566040002/

  42. 42.

    Jake Lahut, “Faso Hits Delgado over ‘Troubling’ Rap Lyrics,” Daily Gazette, July 14, 2018. https://dailygazette.com/article/2018/07/14/faso-hits-delgado-over-troubling-rap-lyrics

  43. 43.

    Herndon.

  44. 44.

    Marisa Schultz, “GOP congresswoman Calls Dem Opponent’s Family ‘Thuggish’ Criminals,” New York Post, September 18, 2018, https://nypost.com/2018/09/18/gop-congressman-calls-dem-opponents-family-thuggish-criminals/

  45. 45.

    Samantha Madison, “Tenney memo: Brindisi family criminals, thugs.” Observer-Dispatch, September 20, 2018. https://www.uticaod.com/news/20180919/tenney-memo-brindisi-family-criminals-thugs

  46. 46.

    “Incumbent Tenney & Challenger Brindisi Locked in a Near Dead Heat; Brindisi Has 2-Point Edge, 46–44 Percent,” Siena College Research Institute press release, August 29, 2018.

  47. 47.

    Zach Williams, “Like It or Not, NY-22 Will Come Down to Trump,” Cityandstate.com , September 30, 2018. https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/ny-22-congressional-race-trump.html

  48. 48.

    Tad Axelrod, “New NRCC Ad Calls Black New York Dem Candidate ‘Big City Rapper.’” The Hill, September 28, 2018. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/408978-new-nrcc-ad-calls-ny-19-candidate-big-city-rapper

  49. 49.

    Dan Freedman, “Delgado: ‘I’m Ready to Go’ as First Term Looms.” Timesunion.com , November 18, 2018, https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Delgado-says-I-m-ready-to-go-as-first-term-looms-13399709.php

  50. 50.

    Ariel Zangla, “Radio Woodstock Pulls ‘Highly Offensive’ Anti-Delgado Political Ad,” Daily Freeman, September 22, 2018. https://www.dailyfreeman.com/news/elections/radio-woodstock-pulls-highly-offensive-anti-delgado-political-ad/article_ce1b2808-be6a-11e8-9234-6f2db441b9a4.html

  51. 51.

    Solender.

  52. 52.

    Matthew Nanci, “Faso-Delgado Race in 19th Congressional District Going Down to Wire,” Recordonline.com , October 27, 2018. https://www.recordonline.com/news/20181027/faso-delgado-race-in-19th-congressional-district-going-down-to-wire

  53. 53.

    “NY 19: Faso Broken” by Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, September 18, 2018. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Np3CkTYxvfU

  54. 54.

    David Lombardo, “Union Rolls Out New Radio Ads against Faso and Tenney.” Timesunion.com , October 22, 2018. https://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/284528/union-rolls-out-new-radio-ads-against-faso-and-tenney/

  55. 55.

    Pramuk.

  56. 56.

    “Strength,” by Delgado for Congress, October 25, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=30&v=RXy-DKxqG24

  57. 57.

    “2018: The Health Care Election,” Wesleyan Media Project, October 18, 2018. http://mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases/101818-tv/

  58. 58.

    Harry Truman campaigned in 1952 for Adlai Stevenson during a whistle-stop campaign tour at Utica’s Union Station. He had stopped there four years earlier during his re-election campaign. Prior to Truman’s visits, the only other president to visit Utica was William Howard Taft, who attended Vice President James Sherman’s funeral in 1912.

  59. 59.

    Greg Mason, “Hundreds Flock to Brindisi Fundraiser Amid Trump Visit,” Observer-Dispatch, August 13, 2018, https://www.uticaod.com/news/20180813/hundreds-flock-to-brindisi-fundraiser-amid-trump-visit

  60. 60.

    Mason.

  61. 61.

    Federal Election Commission, “Details for Candidate ID: H6NY19169; Faso for Congress,” 2018, http://www.fec.gov/fecviewer/CandidateCommitteeDetail.do?candidateCommitteeId=H6NY19169&tabIndex=1

  62. 62.

    Federal Election Commission, “New York-House District 19,” 2018, https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/NY/19/2018/

  63. 63.

    “New York District 19 Race: Outside Spending,” Center for Responsive Politics, 2018, https://www.opensecrets.org/races/outside-spending?cycle=2018&id=NY19&spec=N

  64. 64.

    Matthew Nanci, “Texas Right-wing Campaign Ad Urged 19th District Voters to Pick Green Party Candidate Over Delgado,” recordonline.com , November 11, 2018. https://www.recordonline.com/news/20181111/texas-right-wing-campaign-ad-urged-19th-district-voters-to-pick-green-party-candidate-over-delgado

  65. 65.

    Rachel Silberstein, “Republican Super PAC-sponsored Mailer Urges NY-19 Dems to Vote Green,” Timesunion.com , November 6, 2018, https://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/284691/conservative-pac-sponsored-mailer-urges-ny-19-dems-to-vote-green/

  66. 66.

    Federal Election Commission, “Details for Candidate ID: H8NY22151; Brindisi for Congress,” 2018, https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8NY22151/

  67. 67.

    Federal Election Commission, “Details for Candidate ID: H4NY22051; Tenney for Congress/Claudia Tenney for Congress,” 2018, https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NY22051/

  68. 68.

    Williams.

  69. 69.

    “New York District 22 Race: Outside Spending,” Center for Responsive Politics, 2018, https://www.opensecrets.org/races/outside-spending?cycle=2018&id=NY22&spec=N

  70. 70.

    Brindisi received the Giffords endorsement despite having a 100 percent rating from the National Rifle Association.

  71. 71.

    Robert Harding, “Why Ex-GOP Rep. Richard Hanna Endorsed Anthony Brindisi, a Democrat, for Congress,” The Citizen, October 19, 2018, https://auburnpub.com/blogs/eye_on_ny/why-ex-gop-rep-richard-hanna-endorsed-anthony-brindisi-a/article_09d77d7c-d2e0-11e8-a1c7-4be5238dec98.html

  72. 72.

    Associated Press, “Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney Concedes in Central NY Congressional Race,” Daily Freeman, November 29, 2018, https://www.dailyfreeman.com/news/elections/republican-rep-claudia-tenney-concedes-in-central-ny-congressional-race/article_432ab4de-f3ee-11e8-8616-2fe3ae78fe36.html

  73. 73.

    New York State Board of Elections. NYS Voter Enrollment by Congressional District, Party Affiliation and Status; Voters Registered as of November 1, 2018 and NYS Voter Enrollment by Congressional District, Party Affiliation and Status; Voters Registered as of April 1, 2018.

  74. 74.

    Dan Freedman, “Tale of Two Republicans: a Winner and a Loser.” Times Union, November 29, 2018. https://www.timesunion.com/7day-state/article/Tale-of-two-N-Y-Republicans-A-winner-and-a-loser13432643.php?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Timesunion_Capcon#photo-16462188

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Kraus, J. (2020). New York’s 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts: The Blue Wave Overwhelms the Red Tide. In: Foreman, S., Godwin, M., Wilson, W. (eds) The Roads to Congress 2018. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19819-0_10

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