Abstract
This chapter analyzes macro-political developments in Egypt and Tunisia since the 2011 revolutions in order to reconstruct the broader political context in which socio-economic protests have been unfolding. The chapter offers an account of the puzzling observation that incumbent governments in both countries, despite the different regime trajectories, have had a limited capacity to adopt economic reforms with distributional implications through authoritative state action. It argues that this incapacity transcends regime type because it is caused by more fundamental socio-political dynamics which relate to the socio-political coalitions on which social and political stabilization has depended. What explains the limited political capacity in both cases is the incumbent governments’ vulnerability vis-à -vis representatives of old distributional coalitions (including elements of both state-dependent labor and private business constituencies) whose support (or at least acquiescence) has been essential for post-revolution stabilization, either on a pluralist or on an authoritarian basis.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
Distributional acts are distinctive from redistributional ones depending on the source of money that is collected or dispensed by the state. The former refers to resources that are allocated by the state to social groups or constituencies directly from state non-tax revenues. The latter refers to state action through which income and/or wealth is passed from one group to another through authoritative acts by the state, such as actively through progressive taxation or passively through tax exemptions.
- 2.
Interview with Ennahda’s leader, Tunis, January 2016.
References
Abdalla, N. (2018). Al-haraka al-niqabiyya al-mostaqila fi Misr bayn guhud al-tanzeem wa tahadiyyat al-taetheer (The independent union movement in Egypt between effort at organization and limited impact). In A. Adly & F. Ramadan (Eds.), Su’ud wa Uful Al-haraza Al-omaliyya fi Misr (2006–2016): Al-omaal, Wal-siyasa wal-dawla (The rise and fall of Egypt’s labor movement [2006–2016]: Workers, politics and the state) (pp. 39–79). Cairo: Dar Al-maraya.
Abdel-Malek, A. (1962). Égypte, société militaire. Paris: Éditions du Seuil.
Abrams, E. (2015, April 24). Sisi is no Pinochet. The Washington Post. Retrieved November 26, 2018, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/hes-no-pinochet/2015/04/24/8c8d642e-e212-11e4-905f-cc896d379a32_story.html.
Abu Basha, M. (2018, April 23). 4Q17 BOP Chartbook: CAD stable at three-year low as remittances keep breaking record high. EFG Hermes. Retrieved November 28, 2018, from https://www.efghermesone.com/News/Index/egypt-economics-4q17-bop-chartbook.
Achcar, G. (2013). The people want: A radical exploration of the Arab uprising. Berkeley, CA and Los Angeles, CA/London: University of California Press.
Adly, A. (2015, January 31). Triumph of the bureaucracy: A decade of aborted social and political change in Egypt, Jadaliyya. Retrieved November 26, 2018, from http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/20708/triumph-of-the-bureaucracy_a-decade-of-aborted-soc.
Adly, A., & Meddeb, H. (2017). Why painful economic reforms are less risky in Tunisia than Egypt? Beirut: Carnegie Middle East Center.
Amsden, A. (1992). Asia’s next giant, South Korea and late industrialization. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
Ayubi, N. N. (1996). Over-stating the Arab state: Politics and society in the Middle East. London and New York, NY: IB Tauris.
Bayat, A. (1993). Populism, liberalization and popular participation: Industrial democracy in Egypt. Economic and Industrial Democracy, 14, 65–87.
Beinin, J., & El-Hamalawy, H. (2007). Strikes in Egypt spread from center of gravity. Middle East Report Online, May 9. Retrieved November, 28, 2018, from http://www.merip.org/mero/mero050907.
Beinin, J., & Lockman, Z. (1988). Workers on the Nile: Nationalism, communism, Islam and the Egyptian working class, 1882–1954. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Beinin, J., & Vairel, F. (Eds.). (2013). Social movements, mobilization, and contestation in the Middle East and North Africa. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Bono, I., Hibou, B., Meddeb, H., & Tozy, M. (2015). L’État d’injustice au Maghreb: Maroc et Tunisie. Paris: Karthala.
Brockmeyer, A., Khatrouch, M., & Raballand, G. (2015). Public sector size and performance management: A case-study of post-revolution Tunisia. World Bank Group, Governance Global Practice Group: Policy Research Working Paper 7159. Retrieved November, 27, 2018, from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/574821468166165145/pdf/WPS7159.pdf.
Camau, M., & Geisser, V. (2003). Le syndrome autoritaire. Politique en Tunisie de Bourguiba Ă Ben Ali. Paris: Presses de Sciences Po.
Central Bank of Egypt. (2001–2014). Annual Report. Cairo: Central Bank of Egypt.
Colonna, J. (2018, March 12). SIPRI: Egypt’s arms imports skyrocket amidst greater security threats. Egypt Today. Retrieved November, 26, 2018, from http://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/45059/SIPRI-Egypt’s-arms-imports-skyrocket-amidst-greater-security-threats.
Easton, D. (1965). A systems analysis of political life. New York, NY: Wiley.
El-Merghani, I. (2010). Awda’ Ilaqat Al-amal (Labor Relations). In Al-Hiali Foundation (Ed.), Al-omal Al-misriyoon Fi Alam Motaghayer: Tareekh, Nidhal (Egyptian Workers in a Changing World: History and Struggle) (pp. 131–165). Cairo: Al-Hilali Foundation. (in Arabic).
Evans, P. (1995). Embedded autonomy: States and industrial transformation. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Fabiani, R. (2018). Tunisia and the international economy since 2011: Rentierism, patronage and moral hazard. Jadaliyya. Retrieved November, 26, 2018, from http://www.jadaliyya.com/Details/35142.
Gana, A., Van Hamme, G., & Ben Rebah, M. (2012). Géographie électorale et disparités socio-territoriales: les enseignements des élections pour l’assemblée constituante en Tunisie. L’Espace Politique, 18. Retrieved November, 28, 2018, from http://journals.openedition.org/espacepolitique/2486.
Hibou, B. (2006). Domination & control in Tunisia: Economic levers for the exercise of authoritarian power. Review of African political economy, 33(108), 185–206.
Hibou, B. (2011). The force of obedience. The political economy of repression in Tunisia. Cambridge: Polity Press.
Hibou, B. (2015). La formation asymétrique de l’Etat en Tunisie. Les territoires de l’injustice. In I. Bono, B. Hibou, H. Meddeb, & M. Tozy (Eds.), L’État d’injustice au Maghreb: Maroc et Tunisie (pp. 99–149). Paris: Karthala.
Hibou, B., & Meddeb, H. (2018). Tunisie: la démocratisation ou l’oubli organisé de la question sociale, AOC media, January 29.
IMF (International Monetary Fund). (2016). IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Tunisia on a four-year US$2.8 billion extended fund facility (press release, April 15). Retrieved November, 26, 2018, from https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/14/01/49/pr16168.
Kandil, H. (2012). Why did the Egyptian Middle Class March to Tahrir Square? Mediterranean Politics, 17(2), 197–215.
Karl, T. L. (1997). The paradox of plenty: Oil booms and petro-states. Studies in International Political Economy, 26. Berkeley, CA; Los Angeles, CA; London: University of California Press.
Khiari, S. (2003). Tunisie, le délitement de la cité. Paris: Karthala.
King, S. J. (2009). The new authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press.
Marzouki, N. (2015, July 10). Tunisia’s rotten compromise. Middle East Report Online. Retrieved November, 28, 2018, from http://www.merip.org/mero/mero071015.
Marzouki, N., & Meddeb, H. (2015). Tunisia: Democratic miracle or mirage? Jadaliyya. Retrieved November, 26, 2018, from http://www.jadaliyya.com/Details/32181.
Meddeb, H. (2017a). Peripheral vision. How Europe can help preserve Tunisia’s fragile democracy. London: European Council on Foreign Relations.
Meddeb, H. (2017b, April 5). Precarious resilience. Tunisia’s Libyan predicament. MENARA Future Notes. Retrieved November, 27, 2018, from http://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/menara_fn_5.pdf.
Migdal, J. S. (1988). Strong societies and weak states. State-society relations and state capabilities in the Third World. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Muasher, M., Pierini, M., Djerassi, A. (2016). Between peril and promise: A new framework for partnership with Tunisia. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved November, 26, 2018, from https://carnegieendowment.org/files/CP_269_Tunisia.pdf.
Posusney, M. (1997). Labor and the state in Egypt: Workers, unions and economic restructuring. New York, NY: Columbia University Press.
Przeworski, A., & Teune, H. (1970). The logic of comparative social inquiry. New York, NY: Wiley.
Ramadan, F., & Adly, A. (2015). Low-cost authoritarianism. The Egyptian regime and labor movement since 2013. Carnegie Middle East Center. Retrieved November, 26, 2018, from https://carnegie-mec.org/2015/09/17/low-cost-authoritarianism-egyptian-regime-and-labor-movement-since-2013-pub-61321.
Reuters. (2015). Egypt got $23 billion in aid from Gulf in 18 months-minister. Retrieved November, 28, 2018, from http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-egypt-investment-gulf/egypt-got-23-billion-in-aid-from-gulf-in-18-months-minister-idUKKBN0LY0UT20150302.
Reuters. (2018a, January 30). Egypt sees budget deficit at 9.4 pct/GDP in 2017-18-deputy finmin. Retrieved November, 28, 2018, from http://www.reuters.com/article/egypt-economy-deficit/egypt-sees-budget-deficit-at-9-4-pct-gdp-in-2017-18-deputy-finmin-idUSL8N1PP2CW.
Reuters. (2018b). Tunisia’s foreign reserves fall to level equal to 84 days of imports. Retrieved November, 28, 2018, from http://www.reuters.com/article/tunisia-economy-currency/tunisias-foreign-reserves-fall-to-levels-equal-to-84-days-of-imports-idUSL8N1PW2YN.
Rodrik, D. (1998). Capital mobility and labor. Draft paper prepared for the NBER workshop on trade, technology, education, and the U.S. labor market, April 30–May 1, 1998. Harvard University. Retrieved November, 26, 2018, from https://sites.hks.harvard.edu/m-rcbg/research/d.rodrik_ksg_capital.mobility.and.labor.pdf.
Shafer, D. M. (1994). Winners and losers: How sectors shape the developmental prospects of states. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
Skocpol, T. (1985). Bringing the state back in: Strategies of analysis in current research. In P. B. Evans, D. Rueschemeyer, & T. Skocpol (Eds.), Bringing the state back in (pp. 3–37). Cambridge University Press.
Soliman, S. (2006). Aldawla al daeefa wal nizam al-qawi, Idarat al azma al maleya fi misr. Cairo: el-Dar Press.
Soliman, S. (2011). The autumn of dictatorship: Fiscal crisis and political change in Egypt. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Soudani, S. (2017, February 27). Tunisie. Le limogeage surprise d’Abid Briki annonce une grave crise gouvernementale. Le Courier de l’Atlas. Retrieved November, 27, 2018, from https://www.lecourrierdelatlas.com/tunisie-le-limogeage-surprise-d-abid-briki-annonce-une-grave-crise-gouvernementale-7548.
Steinmo, S., Thelen, K. A., & Longstreth, F. (Eds.). (1992). Structuring politics: Historical institutionalism in comparative analysis. Cambridge and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
Trading Economics. (2017a). Egypt unemployment rate 1993–2018. Retrieved November, 27, 2018, from https://tradingeconomics.com/egypt/unemployment-rate.
Trading Economics. (2017b). Tunisia unemployment rate 2005–2018. Retrieved November, 27, 2018, from https://tradingeconomics.com/tunisia/unemployment-rate.
Trading Economics. (2017c). Egypt government budget 2002–2018. Retrieved November, 27, 2018, from https://tradingeconomics.com/egypt/government-budget.
Trading Economics. (2017d). Tunisia government budget 2007–2018. Retrieved November, 27, 2018, from https://tradingeconomics.com/tunisia/government-budget.
Trading Economics. (2018). Egypt public debt rate 2002–2018. Retrieved November, 27, 2018, from https://tradingeconomics.com/egypt/government-debt-to-gdp.
Tunisian Ministry of Finance. (2018). Les Indicateurs: DĂ©penses. Retrieved November, 28, 2018, from http://www.finances.gov.tn/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=127&Itemid=303&lang=fr.
Waterbury, J. (1983). The Egypt of Nasser and Sadat. The political economy of two regimes. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Waterbury, J. (1992). The heart of the matter? Public enterprise and the adjustment process. In S. Haggard & R. R. Kaufman (Eds.), The politics of economic adjustment: International constraints, distributive conflicts and the state (pp. 182–220). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
World Bank. (2016). New program of support for Tunisia focused on supporting youth and employment, equal opportunities for regions (press release, May 17). Retrieved November, 27, 2018, from http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2016/05/17/new-program-of-support-for-tunisia-focused-on-supporting-youth-employment-equal-opportunities-for-regions.
World Bank. (2017a). GDP Growth (annual %) 1961–2017, Egypt and Tunisia. Retrieved November 27, 2018, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EG-TN.
World Bank. (2017b). Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP) 1976–2017. Retrieved November 27, 2018, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS?locations=TN-EG&name_desc=true&view=chart.
Yousfi, H. (2015). L’UGTT, une passion tunisienne, enquête sur les syndicalistes en revolution (2011–2014). Paris: IRMC-Karthala.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 The Author(s)
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Adly, A., Meddeb, H. (2020). Beyond Regime Change: The State and the Crisis of Governance in Post-2011 Egypt and Tunisia. In: Weipert-Fenner, I., Wolff, J. (eds) Socioeconomic Protests in MENA and Latin America. Middle East Today. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19621-9_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19621-9_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-19620-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-19621-9
eBook Packages: Political Science and International StudiesPolitical Science and International Studies (R0)