Abstract
The purpose of this article is to present the computation results of the synthetic indicator of the economic situation of the rail transport sector in Poland, referred to as ‘the Rail Barometer’. It was developed in 2017 based on the methodology presented by Zajfert, Antonowicz, Majewski, Wołek, members of the Scientific Council of the ‘Pro Kolej’ Foundation, and published in the article: ‘Assumptions for the synthetic indicator of the economic situation of the rail transport sector in Poland’ (Antonowicz et al. in Ekon. Transp. Logist. 74:467–481, 2017 [1]). The article describes the effects of work on implementation, provision of statistical content and calibrating the tool for monitoring changes in the rail sector, including the database structure and volatility of the value expressed as a number of points of ‘the Rail Barometer’ computed on its bases.
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- 1.
Similar indicators are rare also for other rail markets of the European Union. A German example is SCI Rail Business Index published every quarter by an advisory company SCI Verkehr. Cf.: https://www.sci.de/trends/sci-railindex/.
- 2.
At the same time, the assumption constitutes a significant methodological constraint resulting from availability and registration rate of data. That leads to a restriction of the number of components of the synthetic indicator solely to the elements which are available with a delay of no more than one month, and in specific situations—a quarter.
- 3.
Such an approach determines the manner of setting trends for the analysed data: growth, decline or stagnation phase.
- 4.
Due to the restrictions pertaining to archive data, this element has been monitored since the beginning of 2017 and the synthetic indicator has included it only since January 2018.
- 5.
The change in the number of journeys measured on the basis of the number of passengers [pass.] in the last three months compared with corresponding months of the base year.
- 6.
The change of the value of the operational service (product of the number of trains made operational and the distance they covered [train*km]) in the last three months compared with the corresponding months of the base year.
- 7.
The percentage of trains that are on time, i.e. delayed by less than 5 min on their arrival at the terminus.
- 8.
A mean value of delay of trains, taking into account delays up to 5 min on arrival at the terminus.
- 9.
An average cost of covering 1 km for ten largest carriers calculated on the basis of a standard fare adopted for an average service distance characteristic for a given carrier.
- 10.
An average cost of access for ten largest carriers for the journeys characteristic for those carriers of a distance that equals two average service distances.
- 11.
i.e. the product of the service volume and service distance [pass*km].
- 12.
A change in the value of the transport service [tonnes*km] in the last 3 months compared with the corresponding months in the base year.
- 13.
A change in the value of the operational activity [train*km] in the last 3 months compared with the corresponding months in the base year.
- 14.
The percentage of trains operating on time, e.g. delayed by less than 5 min at the arrival at the terminus.
- 15.
The average value of train delays, taking into account delays of up to 5 min at the arrival at the terminus.
- 16.
The average cost of access to the infrastructure for the adopted ten lines characterising freight services typical for Poland, whose total length amounted at 4531 km, which constitutes 24% of the total length of the railway network in Poland.
- 17.
Calculated as a weighted average for rail network sections, taking into account the values for car sets, electric multiple units and railbuses.
- 18.
This value includes sections closed due to investment and maintenance works and lines where the permissible train velocity is 0 km/h.
- 19.
It may be assumed that in future the infrastructure indicators will include also other line infrastructure managers as well as service infrastructure structures, such as intermodal terminals.
- 20.
Operationally referred to as WIG-Rail.
- 21.
Determined on the basis of the cost of MWh as per the price list of PKP Energetyka S.A. and the wholesale price of the Diesel fuel at the ratio of 80/20, ensuing from the indicator of the number of trains using electric and diesel multiple unit.
- 22.
Diesel fuel is used both in rail and road transport. However, its price impacts more the costs of operational activity in road transport, which results from lower resistance of rolling stock and as a result a greater efficiency of rail transport than road transport, which needs ten times more fuel to carry the same unit of load. Cf.: Reference [1, p. 478].
- 23.
Monitoring of the market with the use of ‘the Rail Barometer’ will be continued also in 2018 and in subsequent years.
- 24.
Apart from the data taken into account in the computations made for the purpose of this article, other statistical data, such as average age of the rolling stock, profitability of rail carriers, travel times for specific lines, average permissible velocity on rail lines, are being collected.
References
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Majewski, J., Suchanek, M., Zajfert, M. (2019). Computation of the Synthetic Indicator of the Economic Situation of the Rail Transport Sector in Poland. In: Suchanek, M. (eds) Challenges of Urban Mobility, Transport Companies and Systems. TranSopot 2018. Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-17743-0_22
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