Suitability Analysis for Infill (Re)development Within Informal Context of the City: A Case Study of Hothkhel, Kabul City

Abstract

Rapid urbanization is occurring worldwide, especially in developing countries. Over the past two decades, Afghanistan’s major cities have expanded dramatically due to unprecedented population growth and improper growth management policies. Kabul, the capital city, has expanded in both physical size and population without proper spatial plans. As a consequence, this growth has led the city to develop an informal sprawling urban form that alters and impacts negatively the land use and natural environment. Given the substantial importance of preserving the natural environment from the inappropriate land use conversion and the optimization of the urban land use within the existing communities, this study aims to develop a multi-criteria analysis model using geographic information system (GIS) to identify potential infill area. Hence, seven indicators have been used including the lots size, building material, building floor, access and permeability, restricted area, vacant plots, and land value. It is noteworthy that all the indicators have been rated by local experts, mostly urban planners and architects, and weighted using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) through Super Decision software. The final result of this study is a visual map that represents the hierarchy of the infill potential that can be easily used by policymakers and urban planners, enabling them to implement appropriate and possible upgrading models in guiding future development. The result shows that around 116 ha of the study area which accounts for 41.8% of total land has very high development capacity and is prone to infill (re)development which requires proper management and guidelines to sustain the future growth.