Scenarios for Regional Development in the Altai Krai and Long-Term Trends

Abstract

This study detects and describes a specific set of possible alternatives to local rural development, as exemplified in Altai Krai’s Kulunda steppe that can be implemented in a number of so-called analytical scenarios that the authors substantiate. The first scenario, which involves the natural deterioration of the settlement milieu of Kulunda steppe communities, has already begun and, in the authors’ opinion, is being aided by the state’s inarticulate agrarian policy and the nature of the agricultural market. However, under certain conditions, the authors concede that it might be displaced by a second scenario, which leads to a transformation of Altai Krai’s Kulunda steppe into an area with high-tech farming and processing enclaves that dominate the backward rural district, which is distinguished by unsustainable, inert and intermittent development that allows for only fragmentary modernization. The authors believe that the third scenario—the overall sustainable socio-economic development of this area based on a policy of ‘manageable contraction’ and ‘diversified development’ would be the most desirable.