Abstract
How does the intrinsic voting strength of two groups with different adult age structures compare? How does the annual maturation of juvenile cohorts into adult voters gradually augment a group’s voting strength over time? Answers to these questions can account for why one group registers or votes at higher rates than another. This chapter furnishes two useful demographic accounting models: one, for making an “apples to apples” comparison of political participation across groups where differing age structures obscure a true comparison; the other, to foresee the effects over time of juvenile cohorts maturing into adult voters, strengthening that group’s political participation over time.
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Notes
- 1.
We have validated this approach through a post hoc evaluation of predictive accuracy in 12 cities and counties. Access at GitHub 04-004.
- 2.
The 3-year files are no longer published, so users now must choose between either a 5-year file (centered on the starting year) or the 1-year file for that starting year. Dictating this choice will be the margin of error (MOE ) associated with the 1-year file. A relatively stable 5-year estimate would be preferable to a highly unstable 1-year estimate.
References
Morrison, P. 2014. Quantifying the effect of age structure on voter registration. Social Science Quarterly 95 (1): 286–294.
———. unpublished. Forecasting Hispanic voting strength at local scales. Presented at 2014 applied demography conference, San Antonio.
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Morrison, P.A., Bryan, T.M. (2019). Demographic Accounting Models. In: Redistricting: A Manual for Analysts, Practitioners, and Citizens. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15827-9_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15827-9_4
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