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Conceptualizing and Measuring Energy Security: Geopolitical Dimensions, Data Availability, Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

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Machine Learning Paradigms

Part of the book series: Learning and Analytics in Intelligent Systems ((LAIS,volume 1))

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Abstract

Energy is an important geopolitical driver, and energy security is an emerging field with growing interest in its measurement. This Chapter is a guide to energy security research that aims to estimate a quantitative energy security index with a geopolitical focus, by providing an in-depth dynamic geopolitical look into the history, evolution, dimensions, data, estimation, taxonomy, and forecasts of energy security. Discussion is complemented with examples from the area of the Southeastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. The Chapter commences with documenting the state of the art of the research literature on energy security. In particular, the definitions, the dimensions, the associated geopolitical issues, the policies, and the quantitative simple indicators and complex indexes of energy security are examined. An alternative to a full panel data approach for research that aims to calculate a quantitative energy security index would be to focus on specific milestone time periods such as the first oil crisis of the 1970s, the first Gulf War of 1990–91, the Russian-Ukrainian disputes (2005–09), and the present time. The Chapter discusses how empirical geographical, energy, socioeconomic, environmental and geopolitical data could be collected, and a novel geopolitical energy security index could be developed with reference to appropriate statistical techniques. A Cluster Analysis of the data and security index values of each milestone time period could provide a dynamic taxonomy of countries, based on their energy security profile, which could be depicted on geopolitical maps. Of particular interest would be to see how countries shifted from one cluster to another over time. Following Cluster Analysis, it is suggested that a case study analysis of the energy security profile of key countries (such as Germany, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Canada, Venezuela, China, India, and Japan) could complement the quantitative approach, and provide an in-depth appreciation of countries, the energy security issues they face, the policies they adopt to address them, and how well the obtained clustering and energy security values capture this knowledge. It is also proposed that any energy security index research include a small number of interviews with energy experts from the government, the academia, and the professional arena. It is advised that these interviews include open-ended questions on the concept of energy security, its evolution through the milestone time periods, the energy security index, the clusters, the geopolitical maps, and energy security policies. Finally, it is proposed that any energy security index research be complemented with forecasts that take into account socioeconomic and geopolitical data, the energy security index values, the dynamic taxonomy, as well as information gleaned from the interviews.

It is even probable that the supremacy of nations may be determined by the possession of available petroleum and its products.

—Calvin Coolidge, US President (1872–1933)

…“patterns of oil peace” would be drawn up by governments because oil was too serious an affair to be left to oilmen…

—Frankel [24]

Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion.

—W. Edwards Deming (1900–1993)

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Acknowledgements

The authors of this Chapter thank Drs. T. Nadasdi and S. Sinclair for their online Spell Check Plus (http://spellcheckplus.com), which was used for proofing the entire text.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of International and European Studies, University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece

    John A. Paravantis & Nikoletta Kontoulis

  2. Department of Transportation Planning and Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece

    Athanasios Ballis

  3. Department of Environmental and Natural Resources Management, University of Patras, Patras, Greece

    Vasilios Dourmas

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  1. John A. Paravantis
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  2. Athanasios Ballis
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Correspondence to John A. Paravantis .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. University of Piraeus, Pireas, Greece

    George A. Tsihrintzis

  2. Department of Informatics, University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece

    Maria Virvou

  3. University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece

    Evangelos Sakkopoulos

  4. Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, Centre for Artificial Intelligence, University of Technology Sydney, NSW, Australia

    Lakhmi C. Jain

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Paravantis, J.A., Ballis, A., Kontoulis, N., Dourmas, V. (2019). Conceptualizing and Measuring Energy Security: Geopolitical Dimensions, Data Availability, Quantitative and Qualitative Methods. In: Tsihrintzis, G., Virvou, M., Sakkopoulos, E., Jain, L. (eds) Machine Learning Paradigms. Learning and Analytics in Intelligent Systems, vol 1. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15628-2_6

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