Abstract
In this chapter we introduce Bayesian methods for updating model parameters based on new project-specific data. We provide formal introduction of Bayes theorem to update parameters of probability distributions used in project risk analysis. We discuss examples of updating the probability of arrival of machine breakdown and new change orders using Bayes theorem.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
DeGroot MH, Schervish MJ (2012) Probability and statistics. Pearson Education, Boston
Forbes C, Evans M, Hastings N, Peacock B (2011) Statistical distributions. Wiley, Hoboken
Kingman JFC (1992) Poisson processes, vol 3. Clarendon Press, Oxford
Touran A (2003) Probabilistic model for cost contingency. J Constr Eng Manag 129(3):280–284
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Damnjanovic, I., Reinschmidt, K. (2020). Bayesian Revision of Probability Estimates. In: Data Analytics for Engineering and Construction Project Risk Management. Risk, Systems and Decisions. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14251-3_10
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14251-3_10
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-14250-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-14251-3
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)