Abstract
The Yom Kippur War (1973) and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (1979) that launched the Soviet-Afghan War, both occurred during periods of rising happiness in the U.S. Congress, although the conventional wisdom is that the outbreak of both of these wars took the U.S. completely by surprise. This chapter finds that both of these conflicts were not only anticipated but also encouraged by the U.S. – the former by the non-depressive Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and the latter by the non-depressive National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, under Presidents Nixon and Carter, respectively, who also had non-depressive temperaments. The U.S. expected the Egyptian attack to be more robust than it was (thus overestimating Egypt’s resolve) while Brzezinski and his associates in the CIA incorrectly assumed that, after it invaded Afghanistan, the Soviet Union would never leave pursuant to a negotiated settlement (thus overestimating the Soviet Union’s resolve).
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Notes
- 1.
Uri Bar-Joseph and Arie W. Kruglanski, “Intelligence Failure and the Need for Cognitive Closure: On the Psychology of the Yom Kippur Surprise” Political Psychology, Vol. 24, No. 1 (2003), pp. 75–99, at p. 80.
- 2.
M.T. Penney (ed.), President Nixon and the Role of Intelligence in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War (Yorba Linda: Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum, 2013), at p. 9.
- 3.
Ibid., p. 41.
- 4.
Ibid., p. 43.
- 5.
Rami Rom, Amir Gilat, and Rose Mary Sheldon, “The Yom Kippur War, Dr. Kissinger and the Smoking Gun” International Journal of Intelligence and Counter Intelligence, Vol. 31 (2018), pp. 357–373.
- 6.
Available at: http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB98/octwar-02a.pdf.
- 7.
Ibid., p. 6.
- 8.
Rom, Gilat, and Sheldon, p. 361.
- 9.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, “Can Saddam Be Contained? History Says Yes” Belfer Centre for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, November 12, 2002. Available at: https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/can-saddam-be-contained-history-says-yes.
- 10.
April Glaspie, “Saddam’s Message of Friendship to George Bush” July 25, 1990, 90BAGHDAD4237 (Obtained from the U.S. State Department by New York Times columnist William Safire through a Freedom of Information request).
- 11.
Rom, Gilat, and Sheldon, p. 369.
- 12.
Ibid., p. 362.
- 13.
Marvin L. Kalb and Bernard Kalb, Kissinger, (Idanim: Yediot Aharonot, 1975; Hebrew), p. 221.
- 14.
Kissinger Office Middle-East Country Files, Nixon Library, Kissinger Meeting with Dinitz, 2 June 1973, Kissinger Files, Appendix Ref. 16.
- 15.
Available at: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=4255.
- 16.
Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein, The Final Days (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1976).
- 17.
Rom, Gilat, and Sheldon, p. 370.
- 18.
Available at: https://www.henryakissinger.com/speeches.html.
- 19.
John L. Scherer, “Soviet and American Behavior During the Yom Kippur War” World Affairs, Vol. 141, No. 1 (Summer 1978), pp. 3–23, at p. 12.
- 20.
Steve Coll, Ghost Wars (New York: Penguin, 2004) pp. 44–46.
- 21.
Available at: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/1979MOSCOW13083_e.html (declassified on March 20, 2014).
- 22.
Ibid., para. 3.
- 23.
Ibid., paras. 4–5.
- 24.
Available at: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/1979KABUL07392_e.html (declassified on March 20, 2014).
- 25.
Robert M. Gates, From the Shadows: The Ultimate Insider’s Story of Five Presidents and How They Won the Cold War (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996), p. 146. Steve Coll, p. 46.
- 26.
Gates, ibid.
- 27.
English translation. Available at https://dgibbs.faculty.arizona.edu/brzezinski_interview. Also in David N. Gibbs, “Afghanistan: The Soviet Invasion in Retrospect,” International Politics, Vol. 37, No. 2 (2000), pp. 241–242.
- 28.
Ibid.
- 29.
Diego Cordovez and Selig S. Harrison, Out of Afghanistan: The Inside Story of the Soviet Withdrawal (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995), pp. 36–37.
- 30.
David N. Gibbs, “Afghanistan: The Soviet Invasion in Retrospect” International Politics, Vol. 37 (June, 2000), pp. 233–246, at p. 235.
- 31.
Ibid., p. 237.
- 32.
Public Papers: Carter, 1980–81, Book I, pp. 25–27. Available at: https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1977-80v01/d136.
- 33.
Available at: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=33079.
- 34.
Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Schecter/Friendly (Press) File, Box 1, Brzezinski Briefings and Backgrounders (Press and Public): 1/80. Available at: https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1977-80v01/d137.
- 35.
Department of State Bulletin, February 1978, pp. 23–26. Available at: https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1977-80v01/d63.
- 36.
Zimmermann Telegram, 1917; Decimal File, 1910–1929, 862.20212/82A, General Records of the Department of State; Record Group 59; National Archive. Available at: https://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?flash=false&doc=60.
- 37.
See Henry C. Clausen, and Bruce Lee, Pearl Harbor: Final Judgement (Cambridge: Da Capo Press, 2001). John Prados, Combined Fleet Decoded: The Secret History of American Intelligence and the Japanese Navy in World War II (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 1995), pp. 161–177; Gordon W. Prange, Donald M. Goldstein, and Katherine V. Dillon, Pearl Harbor: The Verdict of History (New York: Penguin, 1991); and R.J.C. Butow, “How Roosevelt Attacked Japan at Pearl Harbor—Myth Masquerading as History”, Prologue Magazine, Vol. 28, No. 3 (Fall 1996), National Archives. Available at: https://archives.gov/publications/prologue/1996/fall/butow.html.
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Jenkins, P.S. (2019). The Yom Kippur War and the Soviet-Afghan War. In: War and Happiness. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14078-6_13
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