Abstract
This chapter introduces the book and the three districts examined in relation to the 2018 election: NY-19, NY-22, and NY-24.
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Notes
- 1.
Geoffrey Skelley, “Exit Stage Left or Right: Midterm Retirements and Open Seats in the House Between 1974 and 2018,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball, March 22, 2018, http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/exit-stage-left-or-right-midterm-retirements-and-open-seats-in-the-u-s-house-from-1974-to-2018/
- 2.
Steven Levitt and Catherine Wolfram, “Sources of Incumbency Advantage in the U.S. House,” Legislative Studies Quarterly, 22.1 (February 1990): 45–60.
- 3.
Jeffrey Jones, “Midterm Seat Loss Averages 37 for Unpopular Presidents,” Gallup, September 12, 2018. https://news.gallup.com/poll/242093/midterm-seat-loss-averages-unpopular-presidents.aspx
- 4.
David Schultz and Rafael Jacob, Presidential Swing States, Second Edition, Rowan and Littlefield: 2018.
- 5.
Erik Engstrom, “Electoral Competition and Critical Elections,” Chapter Six in Partisan Gerrymandering and the Construction of American Democracy, University of Michigan Press, 2013: 100.
- 6.
“How Five Thirty Eight’s House, Senate, and Governors Models Work,” October 17, 2018, https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-fivethirtyeights-house-and-senate-models-work/
- 7.
“Pivot Counties: The Counties that Voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008 to 2016,” Ballotpedia, https://ballotpedia.org/Pivot_Counties:_The_counties_that_voted_Obama-Obama-Trump_from_2008-2016
- 8.
“Pivot Counties: The Counties that Voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008 to 2016,” Ballotpedia, https://ballotpedia.org/Pivot_Counties:_The_counties_that_voted_Obama-Obama-Trump_from_2008-2016
- 9.
It is important to note that redistricting following the 2010 election reconfigured district boundaries.
- 10.
This figure came from the Department of City Planning available at: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/planning/data-maps/nyc-population/population-facts.page
- 11.
Geoff Herbert, “Gov. Cuomo says he’s the ‘voice’ of upstate NY: ‘I love upstate,’” Syracuse.com , November 21, 2018, https://www.syracuse.com/state/index.ssf/2018/11/cuomo_voice_upstate_ny.html
- 12.
Christian Grose and Bruce Oppenheimer, “The Iraq War, Partisanship, and Candidate Attributes: Variation in Partisan Swing in U.S. House Elections,” Legislative Studies Quarterly, 32.4 (November 2007), 531.
- 13.
Luke Perry, “22nd Not as Republican As Tenney Claims,” Utica Center of Public Affairs and Election Research, July 6, 2017. https://www.ucpublicaffairs.com/home/2017/7/6/ny-22-minute-22nd-not-as-republican-as-tenney-claims-by-luke-perry
- 14.
It is important to recognize that the composition of NY-19, NY-22, and NY-24 changed significantly after the 2010 redistricting. All representatives for each district are listed throughout this century, but comparison before and after 2010 has limited utility.
- 15.
Luke Perry, “NY-22 Minute: 2018 and 2014 Two Very Different Midterms for New York,” The Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research, December 25, 2018, https://www.ucpublicaffairs.com/home/2018/12/25/242eqlfrndvojxmm378aa8uekclof1
- 16.
Matthew Hamilton and Rick Karlin, “Faso Defeats Teaching in $8.5 million race for NY-19,” Times Union, November 9, 2016, https://www.timesunion.com/local/article/Faso-defeats-Teachout-in-8-5M-race-for-19th-10603303.php
- 17.
Mark Weiner, “Katko beats Deacon; 1st incumbent in 10 years to win Syracuse’s House Seat,” Syracuse.com , November 9, 2016, https://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/11/katko_beats_deacon_1st_incumbent_in_10_years_to_win_syracuses_house_seat.html
- 18.
“John Katko Talks Campaign, Congress, Sessions and Trump with Luke Perry,” The Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research, September 12, 2018, https://www.ucpublicaffairs.com/home/2018/9/10/john-katko-ny-24-talks-congress-campaign-sessions-trump-with-luke-perry
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Perry, L. (2019). Introduction to the 2018 Midterm, NY-19, NY-22, and NY-24. In: Donald Trump and the 2018 Midterm Battle for Central New York. Palgrave Studies in US Elections. Palgrave Pivot, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-13023-7_1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-13023-7_1
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