Abstract
There are three structural reasons that have not much to do with the person of Donald Trump that explain why NATO will have hard times to survive. First, alliances only make sense in times of war. Against all odds and against what Realists had predicted, NATO remained into existence after the Cold War. This is an anomaly in international politics that in all likelihood will end in the demise of NATO. Second, the major factor of change in international politics in general, according to Realists, is the shifting balance of power between the major powers in the world. These days, the most important shift is the rise of China and the relative decline of the US, especially economically. This change has implications for foreign policy. The odds are that China will become more assertive, first in the region and thereafter maybe globally. US foreign policy will probably become more isolationist, which has immediate repercussions for US allies. US allies - including NATO allies - will be left more on their own. Third, European defense integration does not stand still, on the contrary. It can become a serious alternative for NATO.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
Andrew Brubsinm American preacher, detained since 2016 on charges related to a failed coup against the President, was left back home on =Â ctobre 12, 2018.
References
Billon-Galland A, Thompson A (2018) European strategic autonomy: stop talking, start planning, European defense policy brief of the European leadership network, May
Biscop S (2018) European defence: give PESCO a chance. Survival 60(3):161–180
Friedman U (2018) Trump vs. NATO: it’s not just about the money, Defense One, 12 June
Gardner H (2014) From Berlin to Ukraine/Russia. In: NATO watch comment, 9 November. [online]. Available from: http://natowatch.org/node/1657. Accessed 9 Nov 2014
Garfinkle A (1997) NATO enlargement, what’s the rush ? Nat Interest 46:105–106
Goldgeier J (2010) The future of NATO. In: Council on foreign relations special report 10
Gordon P, Daalder I (2018) Trump’s worst blow to NATO came at home. Defense one, 19 July
Jakobsen PV, Ringsmose J (2018) Victim of its own success: how NATO’s difficulties are caused by the absence of a unifying existential threat. JTS 16:38–58
Kamp K-H (1995) The folly of rapid NATO expansion. Foreign Policy 98:116–131
Kennan G (1997) A fateful error. New York Times, 5 February, p. A23
Klare M (1995) Rogue states and nuclear outlaws. Hill and Wang, New York
Kupchan C, Kupchan C (1991) Concerts, collective security, and the future of Europe. Int Secur 16(1):114–161
Kupchan C, Kupchan C (1995) The promise of collective security. Int Secur 20(1):52–61
Lehne S, Grabbe H (2017) How Donald Trump could save EU foreign policy. Carnegie Europe, 12 January
Mandelbaum M (1995) Preserving the new peace. The case against NATO expansion. Foreign Aff 74(3):9–13
Mearsheimer J (1990) Back to the future. Int Secur 15(1):5–56
Mearsheimer J (2014) Why the Ukraine crisis is the West’s fault. Foreign Aff 93(5):77–89
Nitze P (1998) Letter to senator Moynihan. Congressional Record 144, pt 5, 21–30 April
Peel M, Manson K, Khan M (2018). Pentagon fires warning shot to EU over NATO unity. The Financial Times, 15 February
Posen B (2014) Restraint. A new foundation for US grand strategy. Cornell University Press, Ithaca
Rachman G (2017) Merkel, Trump and the end of the West. The Financial Times, 30 May
Rettman A (2017) Germany is black spot in NATO solidarity. EU observer, 23 May
Rupp R (2006) NATO after 9/11: an alliance in continuing decline. Palgrave/Macmillan, Basingstoke
Shifrinson JR (2016) Deal or no Deal? The end of the cold war and U.S. offer to limit NATO expansion. Int Secur 40(4):7–44
Sarotte ME (2014) A broken promise? Foreign Aff 93(5):90–97
Sauer T (2017) The origins of the Ukraine crisis and the need for collective security between Russia and the west. Global Pol 8(1):82–91
Traub J (2018) RIP the Trans-Atlantic alliance, 1945–2018. Foreign policy, 11 May
Valasek T (2017) The EU’s new defense pact: marginal gains, Carnegie Europe, 16 November
Walt S (1987) The origins of alliances. Cornell University Press, Ithaca
Walt S (1998) The ties that fray: why Europe and America are drifting apart. The National Interest, 1 December
Walt S (2015) Why Arming Kiev is a really, really bad idea. Foreign Policy, 9 February
Walt S (2018) NATO isn’t what you think it is. Foreign Policy, 26 July
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Sauer, T. (2020). Rough Times Ahead for NATO. In: RamÃrez, J.M., Biziewski, J. (eds) Security and Defence in Europe. Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12293-5_18
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12293-5_18
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-12292-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-12293-5
eBook Packages: Political Science and International StudiesPolitical Science and International Studies (R0)