Abstract
The current status of the Lebanese power system is characterized by a structural power supply deficit and transmission and distribution inefficiencies. In this chapter, the Lebanese power system is used as a case in point to showcase the importance of shifting the foundations of conventional thinking in power system planning into a new paradigm where renewable energy is adopted as priority choice.
The technical and economic feasibility of wind farms, solar PV, and battery energy storage systems is studied. Simulations are run using Homer pro to optimize for the lowest cost of electricity. Results show that incorporating utility-scale renewable energy systems and battery energy storage can decrease the overall levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) to $c7/kWh. Furthermore, without the integration of considerable storage capacity, an economic limit of approximately 20–25% renewable energy penetration is reached.
Sensitivity analysis is undertaken while adopting various values for the cost of natural gas and internalizing the social cost of carbon. Results confirmed a positive correlation between the cost of carbon and the price of natural gas on the one hand and system renewable energy fraction on the other hand. Introducing demand side management and increased grid flexibility also showed a high level of sensitivity to both system LCOE and the renewable energy fraction.
Based on these results, the research strongly recommends that power system planning in the Middle East integrates modeling of renewable energy systems and the stacked benefits of utility-scale storage with the objective to achieve the highest combined technical, economic, and environmental benefits.
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Annex 1: Key parameters adopted in the Homer Pro model
Annex 1: Key parameters adopted in the Homer Pro model
Conventional generation units’ parameters | ||
|---|---|---|
Parameter | CCGT | OCGT |
Lifetime | 25 years | 25 years |
Capital expenditure | 1080 $/kW | 835 $/kW |
Fixed operation costs | 17.7 $/kW-year | 11.81 $/kW-year |
Variable operation costs | 2.6 $/MWh | 13.6 $/MWh |
Installation time | 31.75 months | 27 months |
Heat rate | 6591 BTU/kWh | 9697 BTU/kWh |
Minimum load | 50%, 40%, 30% | 10% |
Renewable energy generation parameters | ||
|---|---|---|
Parameter | Solar PV plant | Wind farms |
Lifetime | 25 years | 25 years |
Capital expenditure | 565 $/kW | 1400 $/kW |
Fixed operation costs | 11 $/kW | 2% of capital cost |
Capacity factor | 19.40% | 37% |
Specific yield | 1700 kWh/kWp | 3241 kWh/kWp |
Inverter efficiency | 98% | – |
Derating factor | 88% | – |
Overall loss factor (wake effect, availability, electrical, and others) | – | 20% |
Hub height | – | 84 meters |
ESS parameters | |
|---|---|
Parameter | Value |
Lifetime | 15 years |
Capital expenditure | 315 $/kWh |
Fixed operation costs | 1% of Capex |
Replacement cost | 145 $/kWh |
Minimum state of charge | 10% |
Rectifier efficiency | 98% |
Derating limit | 30% of initial capacity |
Main simulation and financial parameters and constraints | |
|---|---|
Parameter | Main inputs |
Project lifetime | 25 years |
Effective interest rate (adjusted for inflation) | 12% per year |
Inflation rate | 2% per year |
Percentage of unmet load | 0% |
Dispatch strategy | Load Following or Cycle Charging |
Optimization objective | Economic minimization |
Minimum spinning reserve | 10% of instantaneous load +10% of instantaneous PV output +10% of instantaneous wind power output |
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Diab, A., Harajli, H., Ghaddar, N. (2019). Leapfrogging to Sustainability: Utility-Scale Renewable Energy and Battery Storage Integration – Exposing the Opportunities Through the Lebanese Power System. In: Qudrat-Ullah, H., Kayal, A. (eds) Climate Change and Energy Dynamics in the Middle East. Understanding Complex Systems. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11202-8_7
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