Abstract
High Performance Computing (HPC) was used to estimate the tephra dispersion forecast in an operational mode using the Popocatepetl volcano as base case. Currently it is not possible to forecast a volcanic eruption, which can occur at any time. In order to reduce the human intervention for obtaining immediate ash deposition information, the HPC was used to compute a wide spectrum of possible eruptions and dispersion scenarios; information obtained from previous eruptions and meteorological forecast was used to generate the possible scenarios. Results from the scenarios are displayed in a web page for consultation and decision-making when a real eruption occurs. This work shows the methodology approach used to forecast the tephra dispersion from a possible eruption, the computing strategy to reduce the processing time and a description of products displayed.
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Acknowledgement
The forecast system described above was carried out with the financial support from the Ministry of the Interior (Secretaría de Gobernación) through the Risk Management Office (Dirección General de Gestión de Riesgos) under the Fund for Natural Disaster Prevention (FOPREDEN) grant E.III.02. The final system was designed following needs explicitly expressed by the personnel of CENAPRED in order to have a tool focused in their needs for decision-making. The system is currently operated by the CENAPRED and issued to warn the Civil Defense as well as the Civil Aviation (Dirección General de Aviación Civil). NCEP NOAA, meteorological datasets. We thank to Luisa Molina for the proofreading of this text.
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García-Reynoso, A., Zavala-Hidalgo, J., Delgado-Granados, H., Herrera-Moro, D.R. (2019). The Use of HPC on Volcanic Tephra Dispersion Operational Forecast System. In: Torres, M., Klapp, J., Gitler, I., Tchernykh, A. (eds) Supercomputing. ISUM 2018. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 948. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-10448-1_10
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