Skip to main content

Extension of the Model to Uncertainty

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
  • 1295 Accesses

Part of the book series: Springer Texts in Business and Economics ((STBE))

Abstract

This chapter extends the model to uncertainty in order to explain the crucial difference between equity and debt. When households hold equity, they face future returns that tend to be high in good times and low in bad times. Thus, they demand a return on equity that is higher than the return on debt as a compensation for the pro-cyclical returns. When firms are maximizing their profits, they will use debt only if the future profits by the use of debt are larger than the costs in terms of interest payments on debt on average.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   69.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD   89.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    The return on equity is on average higher than the risk-free interest rate.

  2. 2.

    \(\mathbb {E} _t\left [\ldots \right ]\) denotes the expectation conditional on z t.

  3. 3.

    In case of a Cobb–Douglas production function, multiplying the production function with the state of the world can be interpreted as labor-augmenting technological progress under uncertainty: zF(L, K) = (z 1∕a L)a K 1−a = F(z 1∕a L, K).

  4. 4.

    Note that \(\mathbb E_t\left [\text{SDF}_{t+1}\right ]=\frac {1}{1+r_{t+1}}\). This follows from the definition of the stochastic discount factor (6.9) and from the fact that \(\Delta _{t+1}^*\) is a probability measure.

  5. 5.

    We see immediately that \(U(\mathbb E[C])=\mathbb E[U(C)]\).

References

  • Banz, R. W. (1981). The relationship between return and market value of common stocks. Journal of Financial Economics, 9 (1), 2–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Basu, S. (1977). Investment performance of common stocks in relation to their price-earnings ratios: A test of the efficient market hypothesis. Journal of Finance, 32 (3), 663–682.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Breeden, D. T. (1979). An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities. Journal of Financial Economics, 7 (3), 265–296.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carhart, M. M. (1997). On persistence in mutual fund performance. Journal of Finance, 52 (1), 57–82.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cochrane, J. H. (1991). Production-based asset pricing and the link between stock returns and economic fluctuations. Journal of Finance, 46 (1), 209–237.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dittmar, R. F. (2002). Nonlinear pricing kernels, kurtosis preference, and evidence from the cross section of equity returns. Journal of Finance, 57 (1), 369–403.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drèze, J. H. (Ed.). (1974). Allocation under uncertainty: Equilibrium and optimality. London: Palgrave Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The cross-section of expected stock returns. Journal of Finance, 47 (2), 427–465.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1999). Value versus growth: The international evidence. Journal of Finance, 53 (6), 1975–1999.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, L. P., & Jagannathan, R. (1991). Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies. Journal of Political Economy, 99 (2), 225–262.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harvey, C. R., & Siddique, A. (2000). Conditional skewness in asset pricing tests. Journal of Finance, 55 (3), 1263–1295.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lintner, J. (1965). The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 47 (1), 13–37.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lucas, R. E. (1978). Asset prices in an exchange economy. Econometrica, 46 (6), 1429–1445.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7 (1), 77–91.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mehra, R., & Prescott, E. C. (1985). The equity premium: A puzzle. Journal of Monetary Economics, 15 (2), 145–161.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Modigliani, F., & Miller, H. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment. The American Economic Review, 48 (3), 261–297.

    Google Scholar 

  • Modigliani, F., & Miller, H. (1961). Dividend policy, growth, and the valuation of shares. The Journal of Business, 34 (4), 411–433 (1961)

    Google Scholar 

  • Mossin, J. (1966). Equilibrium in a capital asset market. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 34 (4), 768–783.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rubinstein, M. (1976). The valuation of uncertain income streams and the pricing of options. The Bell Journal of Economics, 7 (2), 407–425.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19 (3), 425–442.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sharpe, W. F. (1966). Mutual fund performance. Journal of Business, 39 (1), 119–138.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tobin, J. (1969). A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1 (1), 15–29.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Hens, T., Elmiger, S. (2019). Extension of the Model to Uncertainty. In: Economic Foundations for Finance. Springer Texts in Business and Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05427-4_6

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics