Using Scenario Planning to Supplement Supply Chain Risk Assessments

  • Cliff ThomasEmail author
  • Thomas Chermack
Part of the Springer Series in Supply Chain Management book series (SSSCM, volume 7)


A fundamental component of supply chain risk management is the process of assessing risk in order to make decisions about how to best manage it. In assessing risk, analysts and leaders commonly focus on their near-term environments, overlooking key indicators that might evolve into significant future risks. We propose the use of scenario planning as a supplement to traditional supply chain risk assessment paradigms and practices, and we describe the scenario planning process within the context of supply chain risk management. This chapter does not propose a panacea for the challenges associated with supply chain risk management; rather, it proposes a method of raising and enhancing the level of risk awareness among decision-makers who attempt to manage it.


  1. Alcantara, P., Riglietti, G., & Aguada, L. (2017). Report co-sponsored by Business Continuity Institute and Zurich Insurance, PLC. Retrieved from
  2. Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & Van Der Heijden, K. (2005). The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures, 37(8), 795–812.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: How to create, use, and assess scenarios. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler.Google Scholar
  4. Chermack, T. J. (2017). Foundations of scenario planning: The story of Pierre Wack. New York, NY: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Hubbard, D. W. (2009). The failure of risk management: Why it’s broken and how to fix it. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.Google Scholar
  6. Kleiner, A. (2008). The age of heretics: A history of the radical thinkers who reinvented corporate management (Vol. 164). New Jersey: Wiley.Google Scholar
  7. Milliken, F. J. (1987). Three types of perceived uncertainty about the environment: State, effect, and response uncertainty. Academy of Management Review, 12(1), 133–143.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Miranda, V., & Proença, L. M. (1997). Probabilistic choice versus risk analysis-conflicts and synthesis in power system planning (pp. 16–21). IEEE.Google Scholar
  9. Miranda, V., & Proenca, L. M. (1998). Why risk analysis outperforms probabilistic choice as the effective decision support paradigm for power system planning. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 13(2), 643–648.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Moyer, K. (1996). Scenario planning at British Airways—A case study. Long Range Planning, 29(2), 172–181.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Schoemaker, P. J., Day, G. S., & Snyder, S. A. (2013). Integrating organizational networks, weak signals, strategic radars and scenario planning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(4), 815–824.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: Paths to strategic insight for yourself and your company. New York, NY: Doubleday.Google Scholar
  13. Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead: How royal dutch/shell developed a planning technique that teaches managers to think about an uncertain future. Harvard Business Review, 63(5), 73–89.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Risk Management ConsultantAtlas GroupFort CollinsUSA
  2. 2.Scenario Planning Institute, Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsUSA

Personalised recommendations