Abstract
How does autocratization happen? In this chapter, the authors explore different modes of post-Cold War autocratization. Based on a new classification that distinguishes five different modes of regime change towards autocracy—namely, military intervention, electoral process manipulation, political rights violation, civil liberties restriction, and horizontal accountability loosening—the authors highlight the multi-modal nature of the majority of contemporary processes of autocratization. Accordingly, they conduct crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to identify the main paths of post-Cold War autocratization. The analysis demonstrates the complexity of contemporary processes of regime change towards autocracy, but also the systematic connection between specific modes and forms of autocratization.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Adebanwi, W., & Obadare, E. (2011). The abrogation of the electorate: An emergent African phenomenon. Democratization, 18(2), 311–335.
Almond, G., & Verba, S. (1963). The civic culture. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Berg-Schlosser, D. (2008). Determinants of democratic successes and failures in Africa. European Journal of Political Research, 47(3), 269–306.
Bermeo, N. (2016). On democratic backsliding. Journal of Democracy, 27(1), 5–19.
Coppedge, M. (2005). Explaining democratic deterioration in Venezuela through nested inference. In F. Hagopian (Ed.), The third wave of democratization in Latin America: Advances and setbacks (pp. 289–316). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Coppedge, M. (2012). Democratization and research methods. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
de la Torre, C., & Ortiz Lemos, A. (2016). Populist polarization and the slow death of democracy in Ecuador. Democratization, 23(2), 221–241.
Denk, T., & Anckar, C. (2014). Length of independence and democratic failure. Contemporary Politics, 20(4), 385–401.
Diskin, A., Diskin, H., & Hazan, R. (2005). Why democracies collapse: The reasons for democratic failure and success. International Political Science Review, 26(3), 291–309.
Fish, S. (2001). The dynamics of democratic erosion. In D. Anderson, et al. (Eds.), Postcommunism and the theory of democracy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Huntington, S. (1991). The third wave: Democratization in the late twentieth century. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press.
Kapstein, E., & Converse, N. (2008). Why democracies fail. Journal of Democracy, 19(4), 57–68.
Kneuer, M., & Demmelhuber, T. (2016). Gravity centres of authoritarian rule: A conceptual approach. Democratization, 23(5), 775–796.
Kornai, J. (2015). Hungary’s U-turn: Retreat from democracy. Journal of Democracy, 26(3), 34–48.
Linz, J. (1978). The breakdown of democratic regimes. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Linz, J., & Stepan, A. (1996). Problems of democratic transition and consolidation: Southern Europe, South America and post-communist Europe. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Lipset, S. M. (1959). Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy. The American Political Science Review, 53(1), 69–105.
Lueders, H., & Lust, E. (2018). Multiple measurements, elusive agreement, and unstable outcomes in the study of regime change. Journal of Politics, 80(2), 736–741.
Mainwaring, S., & Pérez-Liñán, A. (2014). Democracies and dictatorships in Latin America: Emergence, survival, and fall. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Moore, B. (1966). Social origins of dictatorship and democracy: Lord and peasant in the making of the modern world. Boston: Beacon Press.
O’Donnell, G. (1992). Transitions, continuities, and paradoxes. In S. Mainwaring, G. O’Donnell, & S. Valenzuela (Eds.), Issues in democratic consolidation: The new South American democracies in comparative perspective (pp. 17–56). Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press.
O’Donnell, G., & Schmitter, P. (1986). Transition from authoritarian rule: Tentative conclusions about uncertain democracies. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Przeworski, A. (1991). Democracy and the market: Political and economic reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Ragin, C. (1987). The comparative method: Moving beyond qualitative and quantitative methods. Berkeley: University of California.
Ragin, C., & Rihoux, B. (2009). Configurational comparative methods: Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and related techniques. Thousand Oaks, California: Sage.
Rihoux, B., & Marx, A. (2013). QCA, 25 years after “The comparative method” mapping, challenges, and innovations—Mini-Symposium. Political Research Quarterly, 66(1), 167–235.
Schedler, A. (1998). What is democratic consolidation? Journal of Democracy, 9(2), 91–107.
Schmitter, P. (1994). Dangers and dilemmas of democracy. Journal of Democracy, 5(2), 57–74.
Schneider, C. Q. (2018). Realists and idealists in QCA. Political Analysis, 26(2), 246–254.
Schneider, C. Q., & Wagemann, C. (2012). Set-theoretic methods for the social sciences: A guide to qualitative comparative analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Stefes, C., & Sehring, J. (2011). Wilted roses and tulips: The regression of democratic rule in Kyrgyzstan and Georgia. In G. Erdmann & M. Kneuer (Eds.), Regression of democracy? (pp. 221–246). The Netherlands: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.
Svolik, M. (2008). Authoritarian reversals and democratic consolidation. American Political Science Review, 102(2), 153–168.
Svolik, M. (2015). Which democracies will last? Coups, incumbent takeovers, and the dynamic of democratic consolidation. British Journal of Political Science, 45(4), 715–738.
Tomini, L. (2017). When democracies collapse: Assessing transitions to non-democratic regimes in the contemporary world. London: Routledge.
Tomini, L., & Wagemann, C. (2018). Varieties of contemporary democratic breakdown and regression: A comparative analysis. European Journal of Political Research, 57(3), 687–716.
Varol, O. (2017). The democratic Coup D’état. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Waldner, D., & Lust, E. (2018). Unwelcome change: Coming to terms with democratic backsliding. Annual Review of Political Science, 21, 93–113.
Way, L. (2015). The limits of autocracy promotion. European Journal of Political Research, 54(4), 691–706.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Appendix
Appendix
Sources of Data and Information Used During the Case Selection and Classification Process
-
Amnesty International: https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/.
-
Authoritarian Regimes Dataset: Wahman, M., Teorell, J., and Hadenius, A. Authoritarian Regime Types Revisited: Updated Data in Comparative Perspective. Contemporary Politics, 19(1). https://sites.google.com/site/authoritarianregimedataset/.
-
Autocracies of the World: Magaloni, B., Chu, J., and Min, E. (2013). Autocracies of the World, 1950–2012 (Version 1.0). Dataset, Stanford University. Magaloni, B. (2008). Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule. Comparative Political Studies, 41(4–5), 715–741. https://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/research/autocracies_of_the_world_dataset.
-
Autocratic Regimes Dataset: Geddes, B., Wright, J., and Frantz, E. (2014). Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions. Perspectives on Politics, 12(2). http://sites.psu.edu/dictators/.
-
Coup d’Etat Events: Center for Systemic Peace, Marshall, M. G., and Marshall, D. R. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html.
-
Database of Political Institutions, Inter-American Development Bank. Thorsten, B., Clarke, G., Groff, A., Keefer, P., and Walsh, P. (2001). New Tools in Comparative Political Economy: The Database of Political Institutions. World Bank Economic Review, 15(1), 165–176 (September), http://www.iadb.org/en/research-and-data/publication-details,3169.html?pub_id=IDB-DB-121.
-
Democracy and Dictatorship Dataset: Cheibub, J. A., Gandhi, J., and Vreeland, J. R. (2010). Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited. Public Choice, 143(2–1), 67–101. https://sites.google.com/site/joseantoniocheibub/datasets/democracy-and-dictatorship-revisited.
-
Freedom House, Freedom in the World Report. https://freedomhouse.org/report-types/freedom-world.
-
Freedom House, Freedom of the Press. https://freedomhouse.org/report-types/freedom-press.
-
Freedom House, Nations in Transit. https://freedomhouse.org/report-types/nations-transit.
-
Human Rights Watch: https://www.hrw.org/publications.
-
Lexical Index of Electoral Democracy: Skaaning, S.-E., Gerring, J., and Bartusevičius, H. (2015). A Lexical Index of Electoral Democracy. Comparative Political Studies, 48(12), 1491–1525. http://ps.au.dk/forskning/forskningsprojekter/dedere/datasets/.
-
National Elections across Democracy and Autocracy Dataset (NELDA): Hyde, S. D., and Marinov, N. (2012). Which Elections Can Be Lost? Political Analysis, 20(2), 191–210. http://www.nelda.co/.
-
Polity IV Project, Center for Systemic Peace: Marshall, M. G., Gurr, T. R., and Jaggers, K. http://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html.
-
State Failure Problem Set: Political Instability Task Force, Centre for Systemic Peace. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html.
-
U.S. Department of State: https://www.state.gov/j/drl/index.htm.
-
Varieties of Democracy: Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Lindberg, S., Skaaning, S.-E., Teorell, J., Altman, D., Andersson, F., Bernhard, M., Fish, M. S., Glynn, A., Hicken, A., Knutsen, H., Marquardt, K. K., McMann, K., Mechkova, V. Paxton, P., Pemstein, D., Saxer, L., Seim, B., Sigman, R., and Staton, J. (2017) V-Dem Codebook v7.1. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. https://www.v-dem.net/en/.
4.1.1 Qualitative Comparative Analysis—Tests for Necessary Conditions
4.1.2 Qualitative Comparative Analysis—Tests for Sufficient Conditions, Truth Tables
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 The Author(s)
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Cassani, A., Tomini, L. (2019). Modes of post-Cold War Autocratization. In: Autocratization in post-Cold War Political Regimes. Challenges to Democracy in the 21st Century. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-03125-1_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-03125-1_4
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-03124-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-03125-1
eBook Packages: Political Science and International StudiesPolitical Science and International Studies (R0)