Abstract
Rainfall induced slope instability is one of the major global concerns. Utmost emphasis on tropical regions, varying intensity and rainfall patterns are major variables that can cause structural failure and serviceability issues. Assessing risks associated with such failure and stability issues warrants a rational approach based on probabilistic concepts. Considering variability in soil parameters using probabilistic concepts conceivably enables to address performance levels of slopes under the action of external variables like rainfall in terms of probability of failure towards limit states other than the conventional ultimate limit states. Fragility curves are being increasingly used as an effective statistical tool for assessing such conditions – vulnerability of infrastructure slopes like embankments and cuttings in-particular. Fragility curves generally describe conditional probabilities of the state of structure to have exceeded a demand condition. This definition of fragility curves and its application has been well documented and extensively applied as evident from literatures. Nonetheless, their utilization in risk assessment of rainfall induced soil slopes subjected to varying intensities and loading conditions is yet scarce. The main aim of this paper is to investigate this effect of varying patterns of rainfall to the fragility of an idealized soil slope subjected to a typical major rainfall scenario. Three typical patterns of rainfall with different average intensity is simulated in an idealized homogenous single layer soil slope using a geotechnical finite element software package – SOILVISION. The results are presented as a series of fragility curves addressing the effect of patterns in the fragilities of slope at the end of rainfall period. Results indicate that varying rainfall patterns instigate major changes to the probability of failures by the end of rainfall, particularly depending on the rainfall pattern. The target factor of safety considered can also influence the fragility curves representing the transition of slope between different safety levels when subjected to varying rainfall conditions.
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Parippayi, S., Khu, ST., Raghunandan, M.E. (2019). Application of Fragility Curves to Investigate the Effect of Rainfall Pattern in the Performance of an Idealized Slope. In: Hoyos, L., McCartney, J. (eds) Novel Issues on Unsaturated Soil Mechanics and Rock Engineering. GeoMEast 2018. Sustainable Civil Infrastructures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01935-8_8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01935-8_8
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