Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Illicit Financial Flows pp 39–61Cite as

A New Strategy to Estimate the Illicit Financial Flows

  • Chapter
  • First Online:

  • 262 Accesses

Part of the book series: SpringerBriefs in Criminology ((SBICC))

Abstract

The chapter outlines the flow network approach (FNA), an innovative method for estimating illicit financial flows (IFFs). The FNA is specifically designed to estimate inward and outward IFFs related to the transnational trafficking of illicit goods. FNA also allows for the overall estimation of the gross value added related to transnational trafficking, from whence it becomes potentially possible to estimate money laundering-related IFFs. The resulting estimate permits the linking of IFFs to their predicate offenses, overcomes double counting issues, and enables cross-national and longitudinal comparisons. Moreover, it increases our understanding of illicit industries by giving us an insight into their economic scope. The chapter exploits the trafficking of cocaine as an illustrative example, but FNA can be applied to any other form of trafficking.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   44.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   59.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  • Baldassarini, A., & Sallusti, F. (2014). Estimating illegal drug flows in Italy: A statistical approach. Presented at the 8th ISSDP Conference, Rome.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berlusconi, G., Aziani, A., & Giommoni, L. (2017). The determinants of heroin flows in Europe: A latent space approach. Social Networks, Crime and Networks, 51, 104–117.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boivin, R. (2011). Le monde à l’envers: analyse de la structure du trafic transnational de drogues illicites. Montréal: Université de Montréal. https://papyrus.bib.umontreal.ca/xmlui/handle/1866/6068.

  • Boivin, R. (2013). Drug trafficking networks in the world-economy. In Crime and networks. London; New York: Routledge http://erdr.org/textes/boivin.pdf

    Google Scholar 

  • Boivin, R. (2014). Risks, prices, and positions: A social network analysis of illegal drug trafficking in the world-economy. The International Journal on Drug Policy, 25(2), 235–243.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bright, D. A., Hughes, C. E., & Chalmers, J. (2011). Illuminating dark networks: A social network analysis of an Australian drug trafficking syndicate. Crime, Law and Social Change, 57(2), 151–176.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Campana, P. (2018). Out of Africa: The organization of migrant smuggling across the mediterranean. European Journal of Criminology, 15, 481.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Campbell, P. B. (2013). The illicit antiquities trade as a transnational criminal network: Characterizing and anticipating trafficking of cultural heritage. International Journal of Cultural Property, 20(2), 113–153.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caulkins, J. P. (1995). Domestic geographic variation in illicit drug prices. Journal of Urban Economics, 37(1), 38–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caulkins, J. P. (2015). After the grand fracture: Scenarios for the collapse of the international drug control regime. Journal of Drug Policy Analysis, 0(0).

    Google Scholar 

  • Caulkins, J. P., Johnson, B. D., Taylor, A., & Taylor, L. J. (1999). What drug dealers tell us about their costs of doing business. Journal of Drug Issues, 29(2), 323–340.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caulkins, J. P., Disley, E., Tzvetkova, M., Pardal, M., Shah, H., & Zhang, X. (2016). Modeling the structure and operation of drug supply chains: The case of cocaine and heroin in Italy and Slovenia. The International Journal on Drug Policy, 31, 64–73.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cave, J. A., & Reuter, P. H. (1988). The interdictor’s lot: A dynamic model of the market for drug smuggling services. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chandra, S., & Barkell, M. (2013). What the price data tell us about heroin flows across Europe. International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice, 37(1), 1–13.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chandra, S., & Joba, J. (2015). Transnational cocaine and heroin flow networks in Western Europe: A comparison. International Journal of Drug Policy, 26(8), 772–780.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chandra, S., Barkell, M., & Steffen, K. (2011). Inferring cocaine flows across Europe: Evidence from price data. Journal of Drug Policy Analysis, 4(1), 1–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Desroches, F. J. (2007). Research on upper level drug trafficking: A review. Journal of Drug Issues, 37(4), 827–844.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dietzler, J. (2013). On ‘organized crime’ in the illicit antiquities trade: Moving beyond the definitional debate. Trends in Organized Crime, 16(3), 329–342.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ehleringer, J. R., Casale, J. F., Barnette, J. E., Xiaomei, X., Lott, M. J., & Hurley, J. (2012). 14C analyses quantify time lag between coca leaf harvest and street-level seizure of cocaine. Forensic Science International, 214(1–3), 7–12.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FATF/OECD. (2014). Financial flows linked to the production and trafficking of afghan opiates. Paris: Financial action task force/organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frontex. (2018). Risk Analysis for 2018. Warsaw: Frontex - European border and coast guard agency. https://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf.

  • Hickman, M., & Taylor, C. (2002). Estimating the prevalence of problematic drug use: A review of methods and their application. Offprint from Bulletin on Narcotics LIV (1 and 2).

    Google Scholar 

  • Hughes, C. E., Chalmers, J., Bright, D. A., Matthew-Simmons, F., & Sindicich, N. (2012). Examining supply changes in Australia’s cocaine market. Drug and Alcohol Review, 31(3), 263–272.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, T. P. (2014, 2014). Sources of error in substance use prevalence surveys. International Scholarly Research Notices, e923290.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kilmer, B., & Hoorens, S. (2010). Understanding Illicit Drug Markets, Supply-Reduction Efforts, and Drug-Related Crime in the European Union. Product Page. 2010. http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR755.html.

  • Kilmer, B., & Pacula, R. L. (2009). Estimating the size of the global drug market: A demand-side approach. Product Page. http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR711.html.

  • Kilmer, B., Caulkins, J. P., Pacula, R. L., & Reuter, P. H. (2011). Bringing perspective to illicit markets: Estimating the size of the U.S. marijuana market. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 119(1–2), 153–160.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kilmer, B., Caulkins, J. P., Midgette, G., Dahlkemper, L., MacCoun, R. J., & Pacula, R. L. (2013a). Before the grand opening: Measuring Washington State’s marijuana market in the last year before legalized commercial sales. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR466.html

    Google Scholar 

  • Kilmer, B., Taylor, J., Hunt, P., & McGee, P. (2013b). Sizing National Heroin Markets in the EU: Insights from self–reported expenditures in the Czech Republic and England. In F. Trautmann, B. Kilmer, & P. Turnbull (Eds.), Further insights into aspects of the illicit EU drugs market (pp. 247–255). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union http://ec.europa.eu/justice/anti-drugs/files/eu_market_full.pdf

    Google Scholar 

  • Kilmer, B., Everingham, S. S., Caulkins, J. P., Midgette, G., Pacula, R. L., Reuter, P. H., … Lundberg, R. (2014). What America’s users spend on illegal drugs: 2000–2010. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR534.html

    Google Scholar 

  • Kilmer, B., Reuter, P. H., & Giommoni, L. (2015). What can be learned from cross-national comparisons of data on illegal drugs? Crime and Justice, 44(1), 227–296.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kleiman, M. A. R. (1992). Against excess: Drug policy for results. New York, NY: Basic Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kleiman, M. A. R. (2004). Illicit drugs and the terrorist threat: Causal links and implications for domestic drug control policy, 24.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kleiman, M. A. R. (2009). When brute force fails: How to have less crime and less punishment. Princeton, NJ; Woodstock: Princeton University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Landesco, J. (1932). Crime and the failure of institutions in Chicago’s immigrant areas. Journal of the American Institute of Criminal Law and Criminology, 23, 238.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lippert, O., & Walker, M. (1997). The underground economy. Vancouver: The Fraser Institute. https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/UndergroundEconomy.pdf#page=33.

  • Louwage, F. E. (1951). Delinquency in Europe after World War II. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 42(1), 53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MacCoun, R., Kilmer, B., & Reuter, P. H. (2003). Research on drugs-crime linkages: The next generation. In Drugs and crime: A research agenda for the 21st century. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/194616c.pdf

    Google Scholar 

  • Madeira, L. F., Laurent, S., & Roque, S. (2011). The international cocaine trade in Guinea-Bissau: Current trends and risks. Noref working paper. Oslo: Norwegian peacebuilding Centre. http://noref.no/var/ezflow_site/storage/original/application/7563aa361160ef275ddd4f0812c6f41e.pdf.

  • Mazzitelli, A. L. (2011). The new transatlantic bonanza: Cocaine on highway 10. Western Hemisphere Security Analysis Center, March. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/whemsac/22.

  • Miron, J. A. (2001). Violence, guns, and drugs: A cross-country analysis. 2001. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/713887/posts.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moore, T. J., Caulkins, J. P., Ritter, A., Monagle, S., & Pruden, J. (2005). Monograph No. 09: Heroin Markets in Australia: Current understandings and future possibilities. DPMP Monograph Series. Fitzroy: Turning Point Alcohol and Drug Centre.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ousey, G. C., & Lee, M. R. (2007). Homicide trends and illicit drug markets: Exploring differences across time. Justice Quarterly, 24(1), 48–79.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paoli, L., Greenfield, V. A., & Reuter, P. H. (2009). The world heroin market: Can supply be cut? Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pedroni, P. L., & Verdugo, C. (2011). The relationship between illicit coca production and formal economic activity in Peru. IMF Working Paper 11/182. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11182.pdf.

  • Pudney, S., Badillo, C., Bryan, M., Burton, J., Conti, G., & Iacovou, M. (2006). Estimating the size of the UK illicit drug market. In Measuring different aspects of problem drug use: Methodological developments. London: Home office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reuter, P. H. (2013). Are estimates of the volume of money laundering either feasible or useful? In B. Unger & D. van der Linde (Eds.), Research handbook on money laundering (pp. 224–232). Edward Elgar Pub.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reuter, P. H. (2014). The mobility of drug trafficking. In LSE (Ed.), Ending the drug wars. Report of the LSE expert group on the economics of drug policy. London: The London School of Economics and Political Science.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reuter, P. H. (2017). Illicit financial flows and governance: The importance of disaggregation. World Bank. http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/677011485539750208/WDR17-BP-Illicit-Financial-Flows.pdf.

  • Reuter, P. H., & Greenfield, V. A. (2001). Measuring global drug markets. How good are the numbers and why should we care about them? World Economics, 2(4), 159–173.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reuter, P. H., & Kleiman, M. A. R. (1986). Risks and prices: An economic analysis of drug enforcement. Crime and Justice, 7, 289–340.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reuter, P. H., & Majmundar, M. (2015). Understanding the U.S. illicit tobacco market: Characteristics, policy context, and lessons from international experiences. Washington: Committee on the Illicit Tobacco Market: Collection and Analysis of the International Experience; National Research Council. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/19016/understanding-the-us-illicit-tobacco-market-characteristics-policy-context-and.

  • Rhodes, W., & McDonald, D. (1991). What America’s users spend on illegal drugs. Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President, Office of National Drug Control Policy.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ryan, J., & Griffiths, P. (2013). Profits dwarf drug responses. 11–6. Anex Bulletin. Carlton: Anex. http://www.penington.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Anex-Bulletin-Vol11-6.pdf.

  • Savona, E. U., & Mancuso, M. (2017). Fighting illicit firearms trafficking routes and actors at European level. Final report of project FIRE. Milano: Transcrime – Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore. http://www.transcrime.it/pubblicazioni/fire-fighting-illicit-firearms-trafficking-routes-and-actors-at-european-level/.

  • Savona, E. U., & Riccardi, M. (2015). From illegal markets to legitimate businesses: The portfolio of organised crime in Europe. Trento: Transcrime – Università degli Studi di Trento. http://www.transcrime.it/pubblicazioni/the-portfolio-of-organised-crime-in-europe/.

  • Schelling, T. C. (1967). Economics and criminal enterprise. The Public Interest, (7), 61–78.

    Google Scholar 

  • Suvantola, L., Favarin, S., Mehlbaum, S., Sahramäki, I., Savona, E. U., Spapens, T., & Kankaanranta, T. (2017). Blocking the loopholes for illicit waste trafficking. Tampere: Commission of the European Union - Police University College https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ItSzdolm0Gt4D7iw9XdlohxqvRa81h5I/view

    Google Scholar 

  • Thoumi, F. E. (2002). Illegal drugs in Colombia: From illegal economic boom to social crisis. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 582, 102–116.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thoumi, F. E. (2005). The numbers game: Let’s all guess the size of the illegal drug industry! Journal of Drug Issues, 35(1), 185–200.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Transcrime. (2015). European outlook on the illicit trade in tobacco products. Trento: Transcrime – Università degli Studi di Trento. http://www.transcrime.it/pubblicazioni/european-outlook-on-the-illicit-trade-in-tobacco-products/.

  • Tunnell, K. D. (1993). Inside the drug trade: Trafficking from the dealer’s perspective. Qualitative Sociology, 16(4), 361–381.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNODC. (2011). Estimating illicit financial flows resulting from drug trafficking and other transnational organized crimes. Research Report. Report. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. http://www.drugsandalcohol.ie/16151/.

  • UNODC. (2015). Drug money and opiate trafficking on the Balkan route. Vienna: UNODC. http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/frontpage/2015/November/drug-money-and-opiate-trafficking-on-the-balkan-route%2D%2Dfocus-of-new-unodc-report.html?ref=fs1.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Transcrime, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy

    Alberto Aziani

Authors
  1. Alberto Aziani
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2018 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Aziani, A. (2018). A New Strategy to Estimate the Illicit Financial Flows. In: Illicit Financial Flows. SpringerBriefs in Criminology(). Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01890-0_3

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01890-0_3

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-01889-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-01890-0

  • eBook Packages: Law and CriminologyLaw and Criminology (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation