Abstract
Future rainfall projections in Turkey and the surrounding regions simulated by two versions of the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM3.2) are presented in this study. Time-slice experiments using a 20 km mesh AGCM were performed both for the present-day and the end of the 21st century. To assess the uncertainty of projections, twelve ensemble projections were also conducted using a 60 km mesh AGCM. High-resolution models reproduce regional details of rainfall in their present-day experiments, showing rainfall maxima along the coastal regions of the East Mediterranean and the Black Sea, corresponding well to the observations. Large reductions in precipitation are projected across Turkey towards the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation decrease is higher in the western part of Turkey than the interior of the country. Precipitation decrease is high during spring and summer in the western part of Turkey and during winter and spring in the Adana region. Soil moisture will decrease in every month, with the highest reduction in April and May. Variations in the overall decreasing trend in average rainfall mean that rainfall intensity is projected to decrease for the Mediterranean coastal regions, while it is projected to increase over other land regions in Turkey.
A. Kitoh, Office of Climate and Environmental Research Promotion, Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, Tsukuba, 305-0052, Japan; email: kitoh@jmbsc.or.jp.
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Acknowledgements
The author acknowledges the Research Project on the Impact of Climate Changes on Agricultural Production System in Arid Areas (ICCAP) conducted by the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN) for prompting his interest in climate changes in arid areas. The current work was supported by the SOUSEI Program of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan.
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Kitoh, A. (2019). Climate Change Projection over Turkey with a High-Resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model. In: Watanabe, T., Kapur, S., Aydın, M., Kanber, R., Akça, E. (eds) Climate Change Impacts on Basin Agro-ecosystems. The Anthropocene: Politik—Economics—Society—Science, vol 18. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01036-2_2
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