Why Polling Matters: The Role of Data in Our Democracy

Abstract

Keiran Pedley argues that opinion polls are an essential part of the modern democratic process, but that they are often misused and misunderstood. He finds the accuracy of the polls at recent British elections and referendums less than satisfactory, but suggests that the most worrying problems arise more from the reporting than from the polls themselves. Excessive concentration on voting intentions raises expectations of a degree of accuracy which polls cannot guarantee to provide, and diverts attention from the more useful evidence which the polls can give on the public’s views of the issues and personalities. Polls have limitations, and attempt a very exacting task, but if these are taken into account, rather than being ignored, polling can make a valuable and unique contribution.