Abstract
The purpose of this chapter is to describe current Southern Hemisphere climate model simulation capabilities in terms of seasonal mean quantities, the annual cycle, interannual and longer timescale variability, and possible future climate change. Climate modeling is defined here to include global climate simulations with general circulation models. Since the timescales will include monthly to seasonal to interannual to interdecadal and longer, the subject matter of this chapter is distinct from numerical weather prediction studies on shorter-than-monthly timescales. The climate models covered in this chapter involve spatial resolutions from about 2° × 2° to 5° × 5°. A number of the climate model results in this chapter will include some type of interactive ocean surface as well as specified SST experiments.
Portions of this manuscript were supported by the Office of Health and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy as part of its Carbon Dioxide Research Program.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Reference
Barnett, T. P., B. D. Santer, P. D. Jones, R. S. Bradley, and K. R. Briffa, 1996: Estimates of low-frequency natural variability in near-surface air temperature. Holocene, 6, 255–263.
Bates, G. T., and G. A. Meehl, 1986: The effect of CO2 concentration on the frequency of blocking in a general circulation model coupled to a simple mixed-layer ocean model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 687–701.
Bjerknes, J., 1964: Atlantic air-sea interaction. Advances in Geophysics. Academic Press, 1–82.
Blackmon, M. L., J. E. Geisler, and E. J. Pitcher, 1983: A general circulation model study of January climate anomaly patterns associated with interannual variation of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 1410–1425.
Boer, G. J., and Coauthors, 1992: Some results from an intercomparison of the climates simulated by 14 atmospheric general circulation models. J. Geophys. Res., 97, 12 771–12 786.
Boville, B. B., 1991: Sensitivity of simulated climate to model resolution. J. Climate, 4, 469–485.
Bromwich, D. H., B. Chen, and X. Pan, 1995: Intercomparison of simulated polar climates by global climate models. Preprints, Fourth Conf. on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography, Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., (J9)14-(J9)19.
Bryan, K., and R. Stouffer, 1991: A note on Bjerknes’ hypothesis for North Atlantic variability. J. Mar. Sys., 1, 229–241.
Burgos, J. J., H. F. Ponce, and L. C. B. Molion, 1991: Climate change predictions for South America. Clint Change, 18, 223–239.
Chen, B., and D. H. Bromwich, 1995: High latitude pressure patterns simulated by global climate models. Proc. First Int. AMIP Scientific Conf, WCRP-92, WMO/TD-No. 732, World Climate Research Programme, 439–444.
Colman, R., S. Power, B. McAvaney, and R. Dahni, 1995: A non-flux-corrected transient CO2 experiment using the BMRC coupled A/OGCM. Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 3047–3050.
England, M. H., 1995: Using chlorofluorocarbons to assess ocean climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 3051–3054.
Evans, J., 1993: Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 6, 1133–1140.
Fennessy, M. J., L. Marx, and J. Shukla, 1985: General circulation model sensitivity to 1982–83 equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 858–864.
Frederiksen, C. S., P. Indusekaran, R. Balgovind, D. P. Rowell, and C. K. Folland, 1995: Simulations of Australian climate variability: The role of global SSTs. Proc. First Int. AMIP Scientific Conf., WCRP-92, WMO/TD-No. 732, World Climate Research Programme, 413–418.
Gates, W. L., 1992: AMIP: The atmospheric model intercomparison project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73, 1962–1970.
Gates, W. L., Ed., 1995: Proc. First Int. AMIP Scientific Conf., WCRP-92, WMO/TD-No. 732, World Climate Research Programme, 529 pp.
Gibson, R., P. Kallberg, and S. Uppala, 1996: The ECMWF Re-analysis (ERA) Project. ECMWF Newsletter, 73, 7–17.
Gordon, H. B., and B. G. Hunt, 1994: Climatic variability within an equilibrium greenhouse simulation. Climate Dyn., 9, 195–212.
Gordon, H. B., P. H. Whetton, A. B. Pittock, A. M. Fowler, and M. R. Haylock, 1992: Simulated changes in daily rainfall intensity due to the enhanced greenhouse effect: Implications for ex-treme rainfall events. Climate Dyn., 8, 83–102.
Hurrell, J. W., and H. van Loon, 1994: A modulation of the atmospheric annual cycle in the Southern Hemisphere. Tellus, 46A, 325–338.
IPCC, 1990: Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, and J. J. Ephraums, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 366 pp.
IPCC, 1992: Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. J. T. Houghton, B. A. Callander, and S. K. Varney, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 200 pp.
IPCC, 1996: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. J. T. Houghton, L. G. Meira Filho, B. A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 572 pp.
Jones, D. A., and I. Simmonds, 1993: A climatology of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones. Climate Dyn., 9, 131–145.
Joubert, A., 1994: Simulations of southern African climate by early-generation general circulation models. Water S. A., 20, 315–322.
Joubert, A., 1995: Simulations of southern African climate by early generation general circulation models. S. African J. Sci., 91, 85–91.
Joubert, A., 1997: AMIP simulations of atmospheric circulation over southern Africa. Int. J. Climatol., 17, 1129–1154.
Joubert, A., and S. J. Mason, 1996: Droughts over southern Africa in a doubled-CO2 climate. Int. J. Climatol., 16, 1149–1156.
Joubert, A., and P. D. Tyson, 1996: Equilibrium and fully-coupled GCM simulations of future southern African climates. S. African J. Sci., 92, 471–484.
Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–471.
Karoly, D. J., 1989: Southern Hemisphere circulation features associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation events. J. Climate, 2, 1239–1252.
Karoly, D. J., R. A. Plumb, and M. Ting, 1989: Examples of the horizon-tal propagation of quasi-stationary waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 2802–2811.
Karoly, D. J., J. A. Cohen, G. A. Meehl, J. F. B. Mitchell, A. H. Oort, R. J. Stouffer, and R. T. Wetherald, 1994: An example of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change. Climate Dyn., 10, 97–105.
Karoly, D. J., P. C. McIntosh, P. Berrisford, T. J. McDougall, and A. C. Hirst, 1997: Similarities of the Deacon cell in the Southern Ocean and the Ferrel cells in the atmosphere. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 519–526.
Kiladis, G. N., and H. van Loon, 1988: The Southern Oscillation. Part VII: Meteorological anomalies over the Indian and Pacific sectors associated with the extremes of the oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 120–136.
Karoly, D. J., H. von Storch, and H. van Loon, 1989: Origin of the South Pacific convergence zone. J. Climate, 2, 1185–1195.
Kinter, J. L. III, J. Shukla, L. Marx, and E. K. Schneider, 1988: A simulation of the winter and summer circulations with the NMC global spectral model. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2486–2522.
Kitoh, A., 1994: Tropical influence on the South Pacific double jet variability. Proc. NIPR Symp. Polar Meteorol. Glaciol., 8, 34–45.
Kitoh, A., K. Yamazaki, and T. Tokioka, 1990: The double jet and semi-annual oscillations in the Southern Hemisphere simulated by the Meteorological Research Institute general circulation model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 68, 251–264.
Knutson, T. R., and S. Manabe, 1994: Impact of increased CO2 on simulated ENSO-like phenomena. Geophys. Res. Lett., 21, 2295–2298.
Knutson, T. R., and, 1995: Time-mean response over the tropical Pacific due to increased CO2 in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 8, 2181–2199.
Lau, N.-C., 1985: Modeling the seasonal dependence of the atmo spheric response to observed El Niflos in 1962–76. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1970–1996.
Lau, N.-C., S. G. H. Philander, and M. J. Nath, 1992: Simulation of ENSO-like phenomena with a low-resolution coupled GCM of the global ocean and atmosphere. J. Climate, 5, 284–307.
Liang, X.-L., W.-C. Wang, and M. P. Dudek, 1995: Interannual climate variability and its change due to the greenhouse effect. Global Planet. Change, 10, 217–238.
Lighthill, J., G. Holland, W. Gray, C. Landsea, G. Craig, J. Evans, Y. Kurihara, and C. Guard, 1994: Global climate change and tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 2147–2157.
Lindesay, J. A., and I. Smith, 1993: Modelling southern African rainfall responses to SST anomalies in the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Preprints, Fourth Int. Conf. on Southern Hemi sphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Hobart, Australia, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 526–527.
Manabe, S., and R. J. Stouffer, 1988: Two stable equilibria of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 1, 841–866.
Manabe, S., and, 1996: Low-frequency variability of surface air temperature in a 1000-year integration of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 9, 376–393.
Manabe, S., M. J. Spelman, and K. Bryan, 1991: Transient responses of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO2. Part I: Annual mean response. J. Climate, 4, 785–818.
Manabe, S., M. J. Spelman, and R. J. Stouffer, 1992: Transient re-sponses of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO2. Part II: Seasonal response. J. Climate, 5, 105–126.
Mason, S. J., and A. M. Joubert, 1997: Simulated changes in extreme rainfall over southern Africa. Int. J. Climatol., 17, 291–301.
McGregor, J. L., and K. Walsh, 1994: Climate change simulations of Tasmanian precipitation using multiple nesting. J. Geophys. Res., 99, 20 889–20 905.
McGregor, J. L., and J. J. Katzfey, 1993: Nested modelling for regional climate studies. Modelling Change in Environmental Systems, A. J. Jakeman, M. B. Beck, and M. J. McAleer, Eds., John Wiley and Sons, 367–386.
Mearns, L. O., 1993: Implications of global warming for climate variability and the occurrence of extreme climate events. Drought Assessment Management and Planning: Theory and Case Studies, D. A. Wilhite, Eds., Kluwer, 109–130.
Mechoso, C., 1981: Topographic influences on the general circulation of the Southern Hemisphere: A numerical experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 2131–2139.
Meehl, G. A., 1987: The annual cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean regions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 27–50.
Meehl, G. A., 1989: The coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling problem in the tropical Pacific and Asian monsoon regions. J. Climate, 2, 1146–1163.
Meehl, G. A., 1990a: Development of global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. Climate Dyn., 5, 19–33.
Meehl, G. A., 1990b: Seasonal cycle forcing of El Nino-Southern Oscil-lation in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. J. Climate, 3, 72–98.
Meehl, G. A., 1991: A reexamination of the mechanism of the semiannual oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Climate, 4, 911–926.
Meehl, G. A., 1992: Global coupled models: Atmosphere, ocean, sea ice. Climate System Modeling, K. Trenberth, Ed., Cambridge University Press, 555–581.
Meehl, G. A., 1994: Coupled land-ocean-atmosphere processes and south Asian monsoon variability. Science, 266, 263–267.
Meehl, G. A., 1995: Global coupled general circulation models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 951–957.
Meehl, G. A., 1996: Vulnerability of fresh water resources to climate change in the tropical Pacific region. J. Water Air Soil Poll., 92, 203–213.
Meehl, G. A., 1997a: The south Asian monsoon and the tropospheric biennial oscillation. J. Climate, 10, 1921–1943.
Meehl, G. A., 1997b: Modification of surface fluxes in component models in global coupled models. Climate Dyn., 14, 1–15.
Meehl, G. A., and B. A. Albrecht, 1988: Tropospheric temperatures and South-ern Hemisphere circulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 953–960.
Meehl, G. A., and W. M. Washington, 1990: CO2 climate sensitivity and snow-sea-ice albedo parameterization in an atmospheric GCM coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Clim. Change, 16, 283–306.
Meehl, G. A., and, 1991: Response of a GCM with a hybrid convection scheme to a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly. J. Climate, 4, 672–688.
Meehl, G. A., and, 1995: Cloud albedo feedback and the super greenhouse effect in a global coupled GCM. Climate Dyn., 11, 399–411.
Meehl, G. A., and, 1996: El Niflo-like climate change in a model with increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Nature, 382, 56–60.
Meehl, G. A., G. W. Branstator, and W. M. Washington, 1993a: Tropical Pacific interannual variability and CO2 climate change. J. Climate, 6, 42–63.
Meehl, G. A., W. M. Washington, and T. R. Karl, 1993b: Low-frequency variability and CO2 transient climate change. Part 1: Time-averaged differences. Climate Dyn., 8, 117–133.
Meehl, G. A., M. Wheeler, and W. M. Washington, 1994: Low-frequency variability and CO2 transient climate change. Part 3. Intermonthly and interannual variability. Climate Dyn., 10, 277–303.
Meehl, G. A., G. J. Boer, C. Covey, M. Latif, and R. J. Stouffer, 1997: Intercomparison makes for a better climate model. Eos, 78, 445–446, 451.
Meehl, G. A., J. W. Hurrell, and H. van Loon, 1998: A modulation of the mechanism of the semiannual oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere. Tellus, 50A, 442–450.
Mullan, A. B., and B. J. McAvaney, 1995: Validation of high latitude tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (Subproject 9). Proc. First Int. AMIP Scientific Conf, WCRP-92, WMOfID-No. 732, World Climate Research Programme, 205–210.
Murphy, J. M., 1995: Transient response of the Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere model to increasing carbon dioxide. Part I: Control climate and flux correction. J. Climate, 8, 36–56.
Nagai, T., T. Tokioka, M. Endoh, and Y. Kitamura, 1992: El Nino/Southern Oscillation simulated in an MRI atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. J. Climate, 5, 1202–1233.
Neelin, J. D., and H. A. Dijkstra, 1995: Ocean-atmospheric interaction and the tropical climatology. Part I: The dangers of flux-correction. J. Climate, 8, 1325–1342.
Neelin, J. D., and Coauthors, 1992: Tropical air-sea interaction in general circulation models. Climate Dyn., 7, 73–104.
Nicholls, N., 1991: Global warming, tropical cyclones, and ENSO. Responding to the Threat of Global Warming, ANL/EAIS/TM17, Argonne National Laboratory, 2–19–2–36.
Palmer, T N., and D. A. Mansfield, 1986a: A study of wintertime circulation anomalies during past El Nino events using a higher resolution general circulation model. I: Influence of a model climatology. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 112, 613–638.
Palmer, T N., and, 1986b: A study of wintertime circulation anomalies during past El Nino events using a higher resolution general circulation model. II: Variability of the seasonal mean response. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 112, 639–660.
Parrish, T. R., D. H. Bromwich, and R.-Y. Tzeng, 1994: On the role of the Antarctic continent in forcing large-scale circulations in the high southern latitudes. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 3566–3579.
Pittock, A. B., A. M. Fowler, and P. H. Whetton, 1991: Probable changes in rainfall regimes due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Proc. Int. Hydrology and Water Resources Symp., Perth, Australia.
Rind, D., R. Goldberg, and R. Reudy, 1989: Change in climate variability in the 21st century. Clim. Change, 14, 5–37.
Rowntree, P. R., 1972: The influence of tropical east Pacific Ocean temperature on the atmosphere. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 98, 290–321.
Ryan, B. F., D. A. Jones, and H. B. Gordon, 1992: The sensitivity of GCM models to the Australian monsoon equatorial shear line: Enhanced greenhouse scenario implications. Climate Dyn., 7, 173–180.
Schlesinger, M. E., 1984: Atmospheric general circulation model simulations of the modern Antarctic climate. Environment of West Antarctica: Potential CO 2 -Induced Changes, National Academy Press, 155–196.
Shukla, J., and J. M. Wallace, 1983: Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response to equatorial Pacific SST anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 1613–1630.
Simmonds, I., 1990a: A modelling study of winter circulation and precipitation anomalies associated with Australian region ocean temperatures. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 38, 151–161.
Simmonds, I., 1990b: Improvements in general circulation model performance in simulating antarctic climate. Antarctic Sci., 2, 287–300.
Simmonds, I., and W. F. Budd, 1991: Sensitivity of the Southern Hemisphere circulation to leads in antarctic pack ice. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 117, 1003–1024.
Simmonds, I., and X. Wu, 1993: Cyclone behaviour response to changes in winter Southern Hemisphere sea-ice concentration. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 1121–1148.
Simmonds, I., G. Trigg, and R. Law, 1988: The Climatology of the Melbourne University General Circulation Model. University of Melbourne, Australia, Pub. No. 31, NTIS PB 88 227491, 62 pp.
Smith, I. N., M. Dix, and R. J. Allan, 1997: The effect of greenhouse SSTs on ENSO simulations with an AGCM. J. Climate, 10, 342–352.
Sperber, K. R., S. Hameed, W. L. Gates, and G. L. Potter, 1987: Southern Oscillation simulated in a global climate model. Nature, 329, 140–142.
Stouffer, R. J., S. Manabe, and K. Bryan, 1989: Interhemispheric asymmetry in climate response to a gradual increase of atmospheric CO2. Nature, 342, 660–662.
Stouffer, R. J., and K. Ya. Vinnikov, 1994: Model assessment of the role of natural variability in recent global warming. Nature, 367, 634–636.
Swanson, G. S., and K. E. Trenberth, 1982: Persistent anomaly statistics in the Southern Hemisphere. Proc. Seventh Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Boulder, CO, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, 118–125.
Tett, S., 1995: Simulation of El Nino/Southern Oscillation-like variability in a global AOGCM and its response to CO2 increase. J. Climate, 8, 1473–1502.
Tokioka, T., A. Noda, A. Kitoh, Y. Nidaidou, S. Nakagawa, T. Motoi, and S. Yukimoto, 1995: A transient CO2 experiment with the MRI CGCM—Quick report. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 73, 817–826.
Trenberth, K. E., 1986: The signature of a blocking episode on the general circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 2061–2069.
Trenberth, K. E., and K. C. Mo., 1985: Blocking in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 3–21.
van Loon, H., 1967: The half-yearly oscillation in middle and high southern latitudes and the coreless winter. J. Atmos. Sci., 24, 472–486.
van Loon, H., 1986: The characteristics of sea level pressure and sea surface temperature during the development of a warm event in the Southern Oscillation. Namias Symposium, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Reference Series 86–17, J. O. Roads, Ed., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 160–173.
von Storch, J.-S., 1994: Interdecadal variability in a global coupled model. Tellus, 46A, 419–432.
Walsh, K., and J. L. McGregor, 1995: January and July climate simulations over the Australian region using a limited-area model. J. Climate, 8, 2387–2403.
Washington, W. M., and G. A. Meehl, 1989: Climate sensitivity due to increased CO2: Experiments with a coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model. Climate Dyn., 4, 1–38.
Washington, W. M., and, 1996: High-latitude climate change in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model with increased atmospheric CO2. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 12 795–12 801.
Whetton, P. H., 1997: Comment on “Global and terrestrial precipitation: A comparative assessment of existing climatologies” by D. R. Legates. Int. J. Climatol., 17, 163–170.
Whetton, P. H., A. M. Fowler, M. R. Haylock, and A. B. Pittock, 1993: Implications of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on floods and droughts in Australia. Clim. Change, 25, 289–317.
Whetton, P. H., P. J. Rayner, A. B. Pittock, and M. R. Haylock, 1994: An assessment of possible climate change in the Australian region based on an intercomparison of general circulation modeling results. J. Climate, 7, 441–463.
Whetton, P. H., M. England, S. O’Farrell, I. Watterson, and B. Pittock, 1996a: Global comparison of the regional rainfall results of enhanced greenhouse coupled and mixed layer ocean experiments: Implications for climate change scenario development. Clim. Change, 33, 497–519.
Whetton, P. H., A. B. Mullan, and A. B. Pittock, 1996b: Climate change scenarios for Australia and New Zealand. Greenhouse: Coping with Climate Change, W. J. Bouma, G. I. Pearman, and M. R. Manning, Eds., CSIRO, 145–168.
Whetton, P. H., A. B. Pittock, J. C. Labraga, A. B. Mullan, and A. Joubert, 1996c: Southern Hemisphere climate: Comparing models with reality. Climate Change, People and Policy: Developing Southern Hemisphere Perspectives, T. Giambelluca and A. Henderson-Sellers, Eds., John Wiley and Sons, 89–130.
Xu, J.-S., H. von Storch, and H. van Loon, 1990: The performance of four spectral GCMs in the Southern Hemisphere: The January and July climatology and the semiannual wave. J. Climate, 3, 53–70.
Yang, S., and W. J. Gutowski Jr., 1994: GCM simulations of the three-dimensional propagation of stationary waves. J. Climate, 7, 414–433.
Zebiak, S. E., and M. A. Cane, 1987: A model El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2262–2278.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1998 American Meteorological Society
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Meehl, G.A. (1998). Climate Modeling. In: Karoly, D.J., Vincent, D.G. (eds) Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere. Meteorological Monographs. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-935704-10-2_13
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-935704-10-2_13
Publisher Name: American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA
Online ISBN: 978-1-935704-10-2
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive