Advertisement

The Relevance of Numerical Weather Prediction for Forecasting Natural Hazards and for Monitoring the Global Environment

  • A. Hollingsworth
  • P. Viterbo
  • A. J. Simmons
Part of the Meteorological Monographs book series (METEOR)

Abstract

This volume is a tribute to the contributions of Prof. Richard Reed to the development of meteorological science, and to the development of the international collaborations that underpin that science.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Andersson, E., and A. Hollingsworth, 1988: Typhoon bogus observations in the ECMWF data assimilation system. ECMWF Tech. Memo. 148, 25 pp.Google Scholar
  2. Bengtsson, L., and A. J. Simmons, 1983: Medium-range weather prediction—Operational experience at ECMWF. Large-scale Dynamical Processes in the Atmosphere, B. J. Hoskins and R. P. Pearce, Eds., Academic Press, 337–363.Google Scholar
  3. Bougeault, P., E. Richard, and F. Roux, 2001a: L’experience MAP sur les phenomenes de mesoechelle dans les Alpes: premier bilan [The Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) field experiment: First assessment]. Meteorologie, 8 (33), 16–33.Google Scholar
  4. Bougeault, P., and Coauthors, 2001b: The MAP special observing period. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 433–462.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Buizza, R., and A. Hollingsworth, 2002: Storm prediction over Europe using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Meteor. Appl., 9, 1–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Burpee, R. W., 2003: Characteristics of african easterly waves. A Half-Century of Progress in Meteorology: A Tribute to Richard J. Reed, Meteor. Monogr., No. 53, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91–108.Google Scholar
  7. Chan, J., 2000: Understanding and forecasting of tropical cyclones: Progress and challenges. Dealing with Natural Disasters: Achievements and New Challenges in Science Technology and Engineering, The Royal Society, 106–134.Google Scholar
  8. Chedin, A., A. Hollingsworth, N.A. Scott, S. Serrar, C. Crevoisier, and R. Armante, 2002a: Annual and seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2, N20, and CO concentrations retrieved from NOAA/TOVS satellite observations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29 (8), 1269, doi: 10.1029/2001 GL014082.Google Scholar
  9. Chedin, A., S. Serrar, R. Armante, N. A. Scott, and A. Hollingsworth, 2002b: Signatures of annual and seasonal variations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from comparison between NOAA/ TOVS observations and radiation model simulations. J. Climate, 15, 95–116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Chedin, A., A. Hollingsworth, N. A. Scott, R. Saunders, M. Matricardi, J. Etcheto, C. Clerbaux and R. Armante, 2003: The feasibility of monitoring CO2 from high resolution infrared sounders. J. Geophys. Res., 108 (D2), doi:  10.1029/2001JD001443
  11. Cherubini, T., A. Ghelli, and F. Lalaurette, 2002: Verification of precipitation forecasts over the Alpine region using a high density observing network. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 238–249.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Cote, J., and A. Staniforth, 1988: A two-time-level semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit scheme for spectral models. Mon. Wea. Rev, 116, 2003 –2012.Google Scholar
  13. English, S. J., and Coauthors, 2000: A comparison of the impact of TOVS and ATOVS satellite sounding data on the accuracy of numerical weather forecasts. Quart. J Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 2911–2931.Google Scholar
  14. EU, 2001: GMES EC Action Plan (Initial Period 2001–2003), Final Communication from the EU Commission to the EU Council and the European Parliament, 23 October 2001. [Available online at http://www.gmes.info/library/index.php.]Google Scholar
  15. Fekete, B. M., C. J. Vörösmarty, and W. Grabs, 2000: The UNH, GRDC, Global Composite Runoff Data Set (v1.0). The Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) and the Institute for the Study of Earth Ocean and Space, University of New Hampshire. [Available online at http://www.grdc.sr.unh.edu/.]Google Scholar
  16. Gérard, E., and R. W. Saunders, 1999: Four-dimensional variational assimilation of Special Sensor Microwave/Imager total column water vapour in the ECMWF model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3077–3101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Goerss, J., and R. Jeffries, 1994: Assimilation of synthetic tropical cyclone observations into the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 557–576.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Goerss, J., L. Brody, and R. Jeffries, 1991: Assimilation of tropical cyclone observations into the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System. Preprints, Ninth. Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 638–641.Google Scholar
  19. Goerss, J., C. Velden, and J. Hawkins, 1998: The impact of multispectral GOES-8 wind information on Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts in 1995, Part II: NOGAPS forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev, 126, 1219–1227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Gregory, D., J.-J. Morcrette, C. Jakob, A. C. M. Beljaars, and T. Stock-dale, 2000: Revision of convection, radiation and cloud schemes in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 1685–1710.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Guard, C. P., L. E. Can, F. H. Wells, R. A. Jeffries, N. D. Gural, and D. K. Edson, 1992: Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the challenges of multibasin tropical cyclone forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 328–352.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Hollingsworth, A., K. Arpe, M. Tiedtke, M. Capaldo and H. Savijarvi, 1980: The performance of a medium-range forecast model in winter—Impact of physical parameterizations. Mon. Wea. Rev, 108, 1736–1773.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Hollingsworth, A., and A. J. Simmons, 1991: Use of reduced Gaussian grids in spectral models. Mon. Wea. Rev, 119, 1057–1074.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Hortal, M., 2002: The development and testing of a new two-time-level semi-Lagrangian scheme (SETTLS) in the ECMWF forecast model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 1671–1687.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Jakob, C. and S. A. Klein, 2000: A parametrization of the effects of cloud and precipitation overlap for use in general-circulation models. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 2525–2544.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Janssen, P. A. E. M., 1999: Wave modelling and altimeter wave height data. ECMWF Tech. Memo. 269, 35 pp.Google Scholar
  27. Janssen, P. A. E. M., J. D. Doyle, J. Bidlot, B. Hansen, L. Isaksen and P. Viterbo, 2002: Impact and feedback of ocean waves on the atmosphere. Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions, W. Perrie, Ed., Vol. 1, Advances in Fluid Mechanics, No. 33, WIT Press, 155–197.Google Scholar
  28. Järvinen, H., E. Andersson, and F. Bouttier, 1999: Variational assimilation of time sequences of surface observations with serially correlated errors. Tellus, 51A, 469–488.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Lanzinger, A., 1995: ECMWF forecasts of the floods of January 1995. ECMWF Tech. Rep. 77, xxx pp.Google Scholar
  30. Lawrimore, J. H., and Coauthors, 2001: Climate assessment for 2000. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82 (6), Sl–S55.Google Scholar
  31. Lorenc, A. C., and Coauthors, 2000: The Met. Office global three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 2991–3012.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Mahfouf, J.-F., and F. Rabier, 2000: The ECMWF operational implementation of four-dimensional variational assimilation. II: Experimental results with improved physics. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 1171–1190.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. McNally, A. P., J. C. Derber, W. Wu, and B. B. Katz, 2000: The use of TOVS level-lb radiances in the NCEP SSI analysis system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 689–724.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Miyakoda, K., L. Umscheid, D. H. Lee, J. Sirutis, R. Lusen, and F. Pratte, 1976: The Near-real-time, Global, Four-dimensional Analysis Experiment during the GATE period, Part I. J. Atmos. Sci., 33 561–591.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Molteni, F., R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and, T. Petroliagis, 1996: The new ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73–119.Google Scholar
  36. Morcrette, J-J., 2000: On the effects of the temporal and spatial sampling of radiation fields on the ECMWF forecasts and analyses. Mon. Wea. Rev, 128, 876–887.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Palmer, T. N., 1996: Predictability of the atmosphere and oceans: From days to decades. Decadal Climate Variability: Dynamics and Predictability, D. Anderson and J. Willebrand, Eds., NATO Advanced Study Institute Series I: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 44, Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
  38. Parrish, D. F., and J. C. Derber, 1992: The National Meteorological Center’s spectral statistical-interpolation analysis system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 1747–1763.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Perry, J. S., 2003: A life in the global atmosphere: Dick Reed and the world of international science. A Half-Century of Progress in Meteorology: A Tribute to Richard J. Reed, Meteor. Monogr., No. 53, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 133–140.Google Scholar
  40. Reed, R. J., 1977: Bjerknes Memorial Lecture. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 58, 390–399.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Reed, R. J., and A. J. Simmons, 1991: Numerical simulation of an explosively deepening cyclone over the North Atlantic that was unaffected by concurrent surface energy fluxes. Wea. Forecasting, 6, 117–122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Reed, R. J., A. Hollingsworth, W. A. Heckley, and F. Delsol, 1988a: An evaluation of the performance of the ECMWF operational system in analyzing and forecasting tropical easterly wave disturbances over Africa and the tropical Atlantic. Mon. Wea. Rev, 116, 824–865.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Reed, R. J., A. J. Simmons, M. D. Albright, and P. Unden, 1988b: The role of latent heat release in explosive cyclogenesis: Three examples based on ECMWF operational forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 3, 217–229.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Richardson, D. S., 2000: Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 649–668.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Ritchie, H., C. Temperton, A. J. Simmons, M. Hortal, T. Davies, D. Dent, and M. Hamrud, 1995: Implementation of the semi-Lagrangian method in a high resolution version of the ECMWF forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev, 123, 489–514.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Rolm, M., G. A. Kelly, and R. W. Saunders, 2001: Impact of a new cloud motion wind product from Meteosat on NWP analyses and forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev, 129, 2392–2403.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Rubel, F., and B. Rudolf, 2001: Global daily precipitation estimates proved over the European Alps. Meteor. Z., 10, 408–418.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Simmons, A. J., and A. Hollingsworth, 2002: Some aspects of the improvement in skill of numerical weather prediction. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 647–677.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Simmons, A. J., R. Mureau, and T. Petroliagis, 1995: Error growth estimates of predictability from the ECMWF forecasting system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 1739–1771.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Teixeira, J., 1999: The impact of increased boundary layer resolution on the ECMWF forecast system. ECMWF Tech. Memo. 268, 55 pp.Google Scholar
  51. Temperton, C., M. Hortal, and A. Simmons, 2001: A two-time-level semi-Lagrangian global spectral model, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 111–127.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Tomassini, M., D. LeMeur, and R.W. Saunders, 1998: Near-surface satellite wind observations of hurricanes and their impact on ECMWF model analyses and forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev, 126, 1274–1286.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Tomassini, M., G. A. Kelly, and R. W. Saunders, 1999: Use and impact of satellite atmospheric motion winds on ECMWF analyses and forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 971–986.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method: Mon. Wea. Rev, 125, 3297–3319.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Tsuyuki, T., R. Sakai, and H. Mino, 2002: The WGNE intercomparison of typhoon track forecasts from operational global models for 1991–2000. WMO Bull., No. 51, 253–256.Google Scholar
  56. van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., P. Viterbo, A. C. M. Beljaars, and A. K. Betts, 2000: Offline validation of the ERA40 surface scheme. ECMWF Tech. Memo., 295, 42 pp.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© American Meteorological Society 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. Hollingsworth
    • 1
  • P. Viterbo
    • 1
  • A. J. Simmons
    • 1
  1. 1.European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReadingUK

Personalised recommendations