Skip to main content

Risk Analysis and Management: An Introduction

  • Chapter

Abstract

Risk is the possibility of a hazardous event occurring that will have an impact on the achievement of objectives. Risk is measured in terms of consequence (or impact) and likelihood of the event. Qualitatively, risk is considered proportional to the expected losses which can be caused by an event and to the probability of this event. Quantatively, it is the product of probability of hazardous event and the consequences. General views about risk perception and risk communication are discussed that help decision making. Risk management and risk governance along with probabilistic risk assessment and alternative approaches to risk analysis are also discussed.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   429.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   549.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   549.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Farmer FR. Reactor safety and siting: A proposed risk criterion. Nuclear Safety 1967; 8: 539.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Starr C. Social benefits versus technological risk. Science 1969; 165:1232–1238.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Lawley HG. Operability studies and hazard analysis. In, Howe J (editor) Chemical Engineering Progress. American Institute of Chemical Engineers 1974; 70(4): 45–56.

    Google Scholar 

  4. WASH-1400 (NUREG-75/014). Reactor Safety Study: An assessment of accident risks in commercial nuclear power plants, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, USA Oct. 1975.

    Google Scholar 

  5. Brown DB. Systems analysis and design for safety. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ,1976.

    Google Scholar 

  6. Apostolakis GE. The effect of certain class of potential common-cause failures on the reliability of redundant systems. Nuclear Engineering Design 1976; 36: 123–133.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Levine S, Vesely WE. Important event-tree and fault-tree considerations in the reactor safety studies. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1976; Aug., R-25(3): 132–139.

    Google Scholar 

  8. Fussell JB, Lambert HE. Quantitative evaluation of nuclear system reliability and safety characteristics. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1976; Aug., R-25(3): 178–183.

    Google Scholar 

  9. Vesely WE. Estimating common-cause failure probabilities in reliability and risk analyses: Marshall-Olkin specializations. In Fussel JB, Burdick GR, editors. Nuclear systems reliability engineering and risk assessment. SIAM, Philadelphia, PA, 1977; 314–341.

    Google Scholar 

  10. Rowe WD. An anatomy of risk, Wiley, New York, 1977.

    Google Scholar 

  11. Lewis EG. Nuclear power reactor safety. Wiley, New York, 1977.

    Google Scholar 

  12. Misra KB, Thakur R. Development of fault tree for reliability studies of a data processing system. International Journal of System Sciences 1977; 8(7): 771–780.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  13. Willie RR. Computer aided fault tree analysis. Operation Research Center, ORC, University of California, Berkeley 1978; Aug., 78–14.

    Google Scholar 

  14. Apostolakis G, Garribba S, Volta G. Synthesis and analysis methods for safety and reliability studies, Plenum, New York, 1980.

    Google Scholar 

  15. McCormick NJ. Reliability and risk assessment, Academic Press, New York, 1981.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Kaplan S, Garrick J. On the quantitative definition of risk. Risk Analysis 1981; 1(1).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Vesely WE, Goldberg FF, Roberts NH, Haasl DF. Fault tree handbook. NUREG-0492, US NRC, 1981.

    Google Scholar 

  18. Rasmussen J. Human reliability in risk analysis. In Green AE, (Ed.) High risk safety technology. Wiley, London 1982; 143–170.

    Google Scholar 

  19. Adams JA. Issues in human reliability. Human Factors 1982; 24: 1–10.

    Google Scholar 

  20. Taylor TR. Algorithm for fault tree construction. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1982; June, R-31(2): 137–146.

    Google Scholar 

  21. Joller JM. Constructing fault-trees by stepwise refinement. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1982; Oct., R-31(4): 333–338.

    Google Scholar 

  22. Fawcett HH, Wood WS. Safety and accident prevention in chemical operations, Wiley, New York, 1982.

    Google Scholar 

  23. Cummings DL, Lapp SA, Powers GJ. Fault tree synthesis from a directed graph model for a power distribution network. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1983; June, R-32(2): 140–149.

    Google Scholar 

  24. Dunglinson C, Lambert H. Interval reliability for initiating and enabling events. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1983; June, R-32(2): 140–163.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Tanaka H, Fan LT, Lai FS, Toguchi K. Fault-tree analysis by fuzzy probability. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1983; Dec., R-32(5): 453–457.

    Google Scholar 

  26. Roland HE, Moriarty B. System safety engineering and management. Wiley, New York, 1983.

    Google Scholar 

  27. Modarres M, Dezfuli H. A truncation methodology for evaluating large fault trees. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1984; Oct., R-33(4): 320–322.

    Google Scholar 

  28. Evans MGK, Parry GW, Wreathall J. On the treatment of common-cause failure in system analysis. International Journal of Reliability Engineering 1984; 9(2):107–115.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Walle RA. A brief survey and comparison of common-cause failure analysis NUREG/CR-4314, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 1985.

    Google Scholar 

  30. Alesso HP, Prassinos P, Smith CF. Beyond fault trees to fault graphs. International Journal of Reliability Engineering 1985; 12(2): 79–92.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Lee WE, Grosh DL, Tillman FA, Lie CH. Fault tree analysis, methods and applications-a review. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1985; Aug., R-34(3):194–203.

    Google Scholar 

  32. Wilson JM. Modularizing and minimizing fault trees. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1985; Oct., R-34(4): 320–322.

    Google Scholar 

  33. Lakner AA, Anderson RT. Reliability engineering for nuclear and other high technology systems: A practical guide. Elsevier, New York, 1985.

    Google Scholar 

  34. Westman, WE. Ecology, impact assessment, and environmental planning, Wiley, New York, 1985.

    Google Scholar 

  35. Dhillon BS. Human reliability with human factors. Pergamon, New York, 1986.

    Google Scholar 

  36. Kumamoto H, Henley EJ. Automated fault tree synthesis by disturbance analysis. Industrial and Engineering Chemistry Fundamentals. 1986, 24(2):2333–239.

    Google Scholar 

  37. Heising CD, Luciani DM. Application of a computerized methodology for performing common cause failure analysis: The Mocus-Bacfir Beta Factor (MOBB) code. Reliability Engineering 1987; 17(3):193–210.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Hoghes RP. A new approach to common cause failure. International Journal of Reliability Engineering 1987; 17(3): 211–236.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Sharit J. A critical review of approaches to human reliability analysis. International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics 1988; 2:111–130.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Inagaki T, Ikebe Y. A mathematical analysis of human-machine interface configurations for a safety monitoring systems. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1988; April, R-37(1): 35–40.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Onisawa T, Nishiwaki Y. Fuzzy human reliability analysis on the chernobyl accident. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 1988; 28:115–127.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Kohda T, Henley EJ. On diagraphs, fault trees and cut sets. Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety 1988, 20(1): 35–61.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Apostolakis GE, Bier VM, Mosleh A. A crique of recent models for human error rate assessment. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 1988; 22: 201–217.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Hokstad P. A shock model for common-cause failure. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 1988; 23(2): 127–145.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Fullwood, RR, and Hall RE. Probabilistic risk assessment in the nuclear industry: Fundamentals and applications, Pergamon, Oxford, 1988.

    Google Scholar 

  46. International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group: Basic safety principles for nuclear power plants, Safety Series, No. 75-INSAG-3, IAEA, 1988.

    Google Scholar 

  47. Dougherty Jr. EM, Fragola JR. Human reliability analysis: a systems engineering approach with nuclear power plant applications. Wiley, New York, 1988.

    Google Scholar 

  48. Onisawa T. An application of fuzzy concepts to modeling of reliability analysis. Fuzzy sets and Systems 1990; 37: 389–393.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  49. Misra KB, Weber GG. A new method for fuzzy fault tree analysis. Microelectronics and Reliability 1989; 29(2): 195–216.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Misra KB and Weber GG. Use of fuzzy set theory for level-1 studies in probabilistic risk assessment. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 1990; 37: 139–160.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  51. Kenaranuie R. Event-tree analysis by fuzzy probability. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1991; April, R-40(1): 120–124.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Inagaki T. Interdependence between safety-control policy and multiple sensor schemes via Dempster-Shafer theory. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1991; June, R-40(2): 182–188.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  53. Guth MAS. A probabilistic foundation for vagueness and imprecision in fault tree analysis. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1991; Dec., R-40(5): 563–571.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Greenberg, HR, Cramer JJ (Eds.), Risk assessment and risk management for the chemical process industry, Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, 1991.

    Google Scholar 

  55. Sharit J, Malon DM. Incorporating the effect of time estimation into human-reliability analysis for high-risk situation. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1991; June, R-40(2): 247–254.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. Zaitri CK, Keller AZ, Fleming PV. A smart FMEA (failure modes and effects analysis) package. Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Jan 21–23, 1992; 414–421.

    Google Scholar 

  57. Russomanno DJ, Bonnell RD, Bowles JB. Computer-aided FMEA forward an artificial intelligence approach. Fifth International Symposium on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI Press, New York, 1992; 103–112.

    Google Scholar 

  58. Henley EJ, Kumamoto H. Probabilistic risk assessment-reliability engineering, design and analysis. IEEE Press, New York, 1992.

    Google Scholar 

  59. Misra, K.B., Reliability analysis and prediction: A methodology oriented treatment, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1992.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  60. Misra K.B. (Ed.), New trends in system reliability evaluation, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1993.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  61. Modarres M. Reliability and risk: What an engineer should know about. Marcel Dekker, New York. 1993.

    Google Scholar 

  62. Soman KP, Misra KB. Fuzzy fault tree analysis using resolution identity. International Journal of Fuzzy Sets and Mathematics 1993; 1:193–212.

    MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  63. Kumamoto Hiromitsu. Fault tree analysis. In Misra KB, editor. New trends in system reliability evaluation. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1993; 249–310.

    Google Scholar 

  64. Kohda Takehisa, Inoue Koichi. Diagraphs and causal trees. In Misra KB, editor. New trends in system reliability evaluation. Elsevier, Amesterdam, 1993; 313–336.

    Google Scholar 

  65. Hokstad Per. Common cause and dependent failure modeling. In Misra KB, editor. New trends in system reliability evaluation. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1993; 411–441.

    Google Scholar 

  66. Sharit Joseph. Human reliability modeling. In Misra KB, editor. New trends in system reliability evaluation. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1993; 369–408.

    Google Scholar 

  67. Dhillon BS, Anude OC. Common-cause failures in engineering systems: A review. International Journal of Reliability, Quality, and Safety 1994; 1(1): 103–129.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  68. Misra, K.B. (Ed.). Clean production: environmental and economic perspectives, Springer, Berlin, 1996.

    Google Scholar 

  69. Stewart MG, Melchers RE. Probabilistic risk assessment of engineering systems. Chapman and Hall, New York, 1997.

    Google Scholar 

  70. Modarres M, Kaminskiy M, Krivtsov V. Reliability engineering and risk analysis: A practical guide. Marcel Dekker, New York, 1999.

    Google Scholar 

  71. Cagno E, Giulio A.Di, Trucco P. Risk and causes of risk assessment for an effective industrial safety management. International Journal of Reliability, Quality, and Safety 2000; 7(2): 113–128.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  72. Hayakawa Yu, Paul S. F. Yip. A Gibbs-sampler approach to estimate the number of faults in a system using capture-recapture sampling. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 2000; Dec., 49(4):342–350.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  73. Pasquini Alberto, Pistolesi Giuliano, Rizzo Antonio. Reliability analysis of systems based on software and human resources. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 2001; Dec., 50(4): 337–345.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  74. Jin Tongdan, Coit David W. Variance of system-reliability estimates with arbitrarily repeated components. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 2001; Dec., 50(4): 409–413.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  75. Wang J, Yang JB. A subjective safety and cost based decision model for assessing safety requirements specifications. International Journal of Reliability, Quality, and Safety 2001; 8(1): 35–57.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  76. Modarres M. Risk analysis in engineering: Techniques, tools and trends. Taylor and Francis, New York, 2006.

    Google Scholar 

  77. Latino RJ, Latino KC. Root cause analysis: Improving performance for bottom-line results. Taylor and Francis, New York, 2006.

    Google Scholar 

  78. Lixuan Lu, Lewis G. Reliability evaluation of standby safety systems due to independent and common cause failures. IEEE International Conference on Automation Science and Engineering CASE’ 06 2006; 8–10 Oct.: 264–269.

    Google Scholar 

  79. Limnios Nikolaos. Fault trees. ISTE, London, 2007.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2008 Springer-Verlag London Limited

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Misra, K.B. (2008). Risk Analysis and Management: An Introduction. In: Misra, K.B. (eds) Handbook of Performability Engineering. Springer, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-84800-131-2_41

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-84800-131-2_41

  • Publisher Name: Springer, London

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-84800-130-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-84800-131-2

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics