Driver Error and Crashes

Abstract

The first distinction to be considered is between slips/lapses and mistakes. (1990) defined error as ‘the failure of planned actions to achieve their desired ends — without the intervention of some unforeseeable event’. In these terms, while a slip represents a problem with the execution of a good plan, a mistake involves an inappropriate or incorrect plan that is correctly executed. Slips and mistakes map directly onto (1974, 1990) differentiation of three levels of human performance. According to Rasmussen’s model, the cognitive mode in which people operate changes as the task performed becomes more familiar, from the knowledge-based through the rule-based to the skill-based level. The three levels are not mutually exclusive, but represent a progression, leading to skilled performance. Knowledge-based performance, which involves consciously thinking the task through, is relevant when the task faced is novel and conscious effort must be made to construct a plan of action from stored knowledge. Knowledgebased performance is necessary if you are planning to drive to a destination never previously visited. Errors at this level of performance are mistakes, arising from incorrect knowledge or from the limitations of cognitive resources. Moreover, decision making itself is subject to a range of biases (Parker and Lawton, 2003). For example, Kahneman and Tverskys’ classic laboratory experiments identified the availability bias, referring to the fact that probability judgements (e.g., judgements of the likelihood of having a car accident) are strongly influenced by the ease with which past cases can be recalled (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974).