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Potential Economic Impacts of Low Level Presence (LLP) in the Global Wheat Market

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The Coexistence of Genetically Modified, Organic and Conventional Foods

Part of the book series: Natural Resource Management and Policy ((NRMP,volume 49))

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Abstract

Development of genetically modified (GM) crops has begun and is continuing on numerous fronts and in several countries. Wheat will be one of the first food grains where GM traits are introduced and will likely be a precursor to similar developments for other food grains. GM wheat is currently being developed in a number of countries (e.g., United States, Australia, United Kingdom, China) and by a number of companies (e.g., Monsanto, Bayer Crop Science, Dow Agrosciences, and Limagrain, in addition to several research organizations, including the University of Adelaide, CSIRO, and Victoria Agribiosciences Center—now AgriBio and in the United Kingdom). Traits under development using GM techniques include fusarium resistance (Huso and Wilson 2005; Tollefson 2011; Valliyodan and Nguyen 2006), drought resistance, and protein quality. Indeed, much of the groundwork in GM wheat development is emerging from Australia and setting the stage for development in other countries.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    A recent workshop addressed similar problems in the European Union (Vigani et al. 2013). The concerns were about declining rate of productivity growth, prospects of climate change and they pointed to the decline in the wheat yield growth rate, especially in France, Germany and the UK.

  2. 2.

    The DAS announcements are available at: Business Wire (2013, 8 April) and Dow AgroSciences (2013). Retrieved 16 April 2013, from http://www.exzactprecisiontechnology.com/why/.

  3. 3.

    As examples, see: Kesmodel (2012), The Economist online (2011), Tollefson (2011) and Wall Street Journal (2012).

  4. 4.

    In addition to these, similar methodologies were used by Wynn (2014a, b, c, d) using of real options and Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the Australian market value of canola that had been genetically modified to be drought tolerant. The results showed the GM canola to be more profitable than conventional canola and also quantitatively demonstrated that a yield advantage across rainfall levels is necessary for the trait to have market value. Other studies (Wynn 2015a, b, c, d) demonstrated use of real options, Monte Carlo simulation and multicriteria analysis to estimate the global market value of canola that has been genetically modified to be drought tolerant. The results showed the GM canola would be more profitable than conventional varieties and also quantitatively demonstrated that it would not be profitable to pursue commercialisation of GM canola in certain regions, such as Europe.

  5. 5.

    These are in addition to numerous other studies that had addressed these issues in varying ways and claims regarding segregation. See, as examples: Furtan et al. (2003), Carter et al. (2005) and Bullock et al. (2000).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. North Dakota State University, Fargo, USA

    William W. Wilson & Bruce Dahl

Authors
  1. William W. Wilson
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  2. Bruce Dahl
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Correspondence to William W. Wilson .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agriculture and Applied Economics, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri, USA

    Nicholas Kalaitzandonakes

  2. Grad Sch Public Policy, Univ Saskatchewan, Johnson-Shoyama Grad Sch Public Policy, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

    Peter W.B. Phillips

  3. Technische Universität München , Freising, Bayern, Germany

    Justus Wesseler

  4. University of Saskatchewan , Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

    Stuart J. Smyth

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Wilson, W.W., Dahl, B. (2016). Potential Economic Impacts of Low Level Presence (LLP) in the Global Wheat Market. In: Kalaitzandonakes, N., Phillips, P., Wesseler, J., Smyth, S. (eds) The Coexistence of Genetically Modified, Organic and Conventional Foods. Natural Resource Management and Policy, vol 49. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-3727-1_20

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-3727-1_20

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