Abstract
In expeditionary environments, Western Military commanders are increasingly being asked to take into account the secondary and tertiary effects of their actions on the “hearts and minds” of the target populations similar to the way that they take the physical/kinetic effects of their actions into account. The problem is that while there are a number of tools that commanders can use to assess physical effects of their kinetic actions (for instance tools exist that can be used to precisely predict the size of a crater resulting from the impact of a missile to be fired from a ship thousands of miles away from the target), commanders have little or no access to computer tools for assessing the human terrain effects of their kinetic and non-kinetic actions, and select the action that is most likely to be effective. The reason we have computer simulation tools that allow us to precisely simulate and predict the physical impact of a kinetic action (and to talk about what the universe looked like 10-39 seconds after the big bang!) is that centuries of physics allows us to isolate irrelevant physical terrain processes and variables from the relevant ones. We currently do not have an equivalent socio-cognitive model of human terrain that isolates variables and processes most relevant to the development of socio-cultural beliefs that cause and perpetuate inter-group conflict. The development of such a model is a must if we are to develop human terrain visualization and simulation tools to aid military commanders in understanding the higher order human terrain effects of their actions. This chapter will report on the work that we have done towards the development of a model of the dynamics of people’s social identity beliefs. Our model is based on a synthesis of social identity theory with rational choice theory and social identity entrepreneurship model of leadership. Social Identity Theory (SIT) describes how features of a subjectively perceived social structure can lead people to define themselves in terms of a shared social identity and thereby produce distinct forms of intergroup behavior. Whenever we think of ourselves as belonging to a gender/ethnicity/class/religion, we invoke part of our social identity. SIT provides the cognitive and motivational bases of intergroup differentiation. In other words, its fundamental driving force is the motivation for individuals to view their group in a distinct and positive light. We will outline an interdisciplinary approach involving agent-based social simulation work coupled with traditional controlled psychological experiments in a lab and anthropological field observations that have the potential to be extremely fruitful in development of predictive socio-cognitive models of social identity dynamics.
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Notes
- 1.
While the three characters are fictional, we based them on various news reports of the Afghanistan war. In particular, the description of the Mahmood character draws heavily on the 2006 New York. Times Magazine article by Brown [46].
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The author would like to thank Dr. Lisa Legault for her valuable feedback on an earlier draft of this article.
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Upal, M.A. (2015). A Framework for Agent-Based Social Simulations of Social Identity Dynamics. In: Fellman, P., Bar-Yam, Y., Minai, A. (eds) Conflict and Complexity. Understanding Complex Systems. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-1705-1_4
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