Abstract
Where are we going in space? Forget, for the moment, short-term concerns about a thriving Soviet space program and a crippled NASA; try to take the long view and look a century ahead. Even now, computer-controlled machines have hurtled billions of miles from the earth, providing us with a brand new perspective on our solar system and on our universe. Humans have landed on the moon, and have survived in space stations for nearly a year. We’ve come a long way since the early days when astronauts were strapped into oversized metal cans, tossed into orbit, whizzed around the earth for a few hours, and quickly came back to the comforts of home.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Reference Notes
Balboa’s expedition is described in Samuel E. Morison, The European Discovery of America: The Southern Voyages (New York: Oxford University Press, 1974), pp. 200–204.
Harry L. Shipman, Space 2000: Meeting the Challenge of a New Era (New York: Plenum, 1987).
For instance, see Sally K. Ride, Leadership and America’s Future in Space (Washington, D.C.: NASA, 1987).
James Oberg and Alcestis Oberg, Pioneering Space: Living on the Next Frontier (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1986).
National Commission on Space, Pioneering the Space Frontier (New York: Bantam, 1986).
Others, of course, have posed these questions. I found these rather clearly stated in Bruce Murray, Michael C. Malin, and Roland Greeley, Earthlike Planets: Surfaces of Mercury, Venus, Earth, Moon, Mars (San Francisco: Freeman, 1981), 350.
Spark M. Matsunaga, The Mars Project (New York: Hill and Wang, 1986).
Shipman, Space 2000, pp. 329-332.
The $5000 figure is based on the costs of launching payloads with expendable rockets in the 1970s, converted into 1988 dollars; for references, see H. L. Shipman, Space 2000: Meeting the Challenge of a New Era (New York: Plenum, 1986), p. 396. The $10,000 figure is based on the full costs of the shuttle program, for which I take the following simple approach: From 1970 through 1995, the space shuttle cost approximately $15 billion to build and $2 billion per year (from 1980 through 1995) to operate, for a total cost of $45 billion in 1988 dollars, in rough numbers, and projecting that operating costs will continue at the current rate. Optimistically, there will be 75 shuttle launches through 1995, with 25 launches from 1980 through 1988 and an average of eight launches per year from 1989 through 1995. With 60,000 pounds being (or capable of being) launched with each shuttle flight, the arithmetic shows that the space shuttle can or will launch a total of 75 × 60,000 = 4.5 million pounds of stuff into low orbit, corresponding to a launch cost of $10,000 per pound.
Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (New York: Random House, 1987).
See, for example, William K. Hartmann, Ron Miller, and Pamela Lee, Out of the Cradle: Exploring the Frontiers Beyond Earth (New York: Workman Publishing, 1984).
G. K. O’Neill, The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space (New York: William Morrow, 1977).
G. K. O’Neill, 2081: A Hopeful View of the Human Future (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1981).
Ben Bova, The High Road (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1981); and much, but not all, of.
National Commission on Space, Pioneering the Space Frontier (New York: Bantam, 1986).
The first 50 years are based on Pioneering the Space Frontier, p. 190, and on the Ride report. I think the timetable in both reports is quite optimistic and have adjusted the dates accordingly.
James A. Van Allen, “Myths and Realities of Space Flight,” Science 232 (30 May 1986): 1075–1076; letters responding to this are in Science 233 (8 August 1986), 610-611.
Thomas Donahue et al., Study Steering Group, Space Science Board, National Research Council, Space Science in the Twenty-First Century: Imperatives for the Decades 1995 to 2015: Overview (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1988), pp. 78–80.
Freeman Dyson, Disturbing the Universe (New York: Harper and Row, 1979), Chapt. 11.
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1989 Harry L. Shipman
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Shipman, H.L. (1989). The Next Frontier?. In: Humans in Space. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-6104-4_1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-6104-4_1
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-0-306-43171-5
Online ISBN: 978-1-4899-6104-4
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive