Determinants of Severity in Acutely Hazardous Chemical Releases

Abstract

This study attempts to identify factors that contribute to the occurrence and severity of acutely hazardous chemical releases. The study uses EPA’s Acute Hazardous Events Data Base, which documents chemical releases by providing information on release conditions, the properties of the chemicals involved, and the consequences of the release (e. g., death, injury and evacuation). Measures of these consequences are used as an index of severity and serve as the dependent variables in a series of statistical models. Three hypotheses are tested: (1) severe events tend to occur at non-process times, suggesting that human error may play a significant role in serious accidents; (2) the quantity of the chemical released, standardized by toxicity, is positively related to the severity of an event; and (3) the probability of severe consequences is greatly enhanced when there are releases to air.