Abstract
Since China first adopted strong birth control policies in the early 1970s, there has been a dramatic fall in Chinese fertility. Under the wan xi shao policy (literally “late, sparse, and few,” a policy calling for later childbearing, longer spacing, and fewer children) in effect during the 1970s, the total fertility rate, the most widely used fertility measure, dropped from 5.93 births per woman in 1970 to 2.66 births in 1971 (Coale 1984). The one-child policy introduced in 1979 has pushed fertility even lower: by 1984 the total fertility rate had dropped to 1.94, slightly below the level required for population replacement (Wu 1986) [1].
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Notes
Reports of significant underregistration of births in the rural areas suggest that this official figure underestimates the actual fertility level.
Also of increasing concern is the effect of the one-child policy on the education of single children.
The Han Chinese make up about 93 percent of China’s population. Little is known about the cultural acceptability of the birth-planning policy to China’s 55 ethnic minority groups.
In some localities remarried couples in which one spouse has two children from a previous marriage and the other has no children are allowed to have a third child (Greenhalgh 1986). Such cases, however, are extremely rare.
For details on projection methodology, see Bongaarts and Greenhalgh (1985).
Given the high costs of education and of raising a child in the urban areas generally, families in the state sector may be better off with only one child.
Another advantage of the two-child policies is that with two children, the older can reduce the childcare work load on the mother by watching over the younger child.
Based on discussions between Greenhalgh and Chinese population specialists held at Chinese demographic research and training centers in November and December 1985 and November and December 1986, and M. Wolf’s data (1985).
In many rural areas, couples whose first child is a girl may have a second child (Greenhalgh 1986).
This view was widely held by demographers interviewed in late 1985 and late 1986.
References
Bongaarts, John and Susan Greenhalgh. 1985. “An alternative to the one-child policy in China.” Population and Development Review 11: 585–617.
Chen Yuejin, Liu Jiantong, Yu Qingwen. 1985. “Xuanzhai zuiyou renkou fazhan mubiaode yi zhong fangfa” (The way to choose the best goal of population development). Renkou Yanjiu 4: 9–11.
Coale, Ansley J. 1984. Rapid Population Change in China, 1952–1982. Washington DC: National Research Council.
Croll, Elisabeth. 1983a. Chinese Women Since Mao. Armonk NY: M.E. Sharpe.
Croll, Elisabeth. 1983b. The Family Rice Bowl: Food and the Domestic Economy in China. London: Zed.
Greenhalgh, Susan. 1985. “Sexual stratification: The other side of growth with equity.” Population and Development Review 11: 265–314.
Greenhalgh, Susan. 1986. “Shifts in China’s population policy, 1984–1986: Views from the central, provincial, and local levels.” Population and Development Review 12: 491–515.
——. 1987. “Families and networks in Taiwan’s economic development.” Pp. 224-245 in E.A. Winckler and S.A.
Greenhalgh, M. (eds.), Contending Approaches to the Political Economy of Taiwan. Armonk NY: M.E. Sharpe.
Hooper, Beverly. 1984. “China’s modernization: Are young women going to lose out?” Modern China 10: 317–343.
Jiankang Bao, Jihua Shengyu Ban (Health Gazette, Birth Planning Edition). 1986. 13 June (128): 1.
Ling Boling and Gao Erguang. 1985. “Tianjin shi nongcun yi hui zhuanyehu shengyu qingkuangde tiaocha” (A survey of fertility in specialized households with one child in the countryside in Tianjin City). Renkou Yanjiu 4: 20–24.
Qie Jianwei. 1985. “Dui zhi’ qiwu’ renkou jihuade chubu shexiang” (Tentative ideas of making the seventh five-year population plan). Renkou Yanjiu 4: 3–8.
Renmin Ribao. 1986. “Reng tichang yi dui fufu sheng yige haizi” (One child per couple still recommended). 4 December: 1.
She Mengren and Shao Boliang. 1985. “Shixing jihua shengyu shi Zhongguo renmin zijide xuanze” (Carrying out family planning is the Chinese people’s own choice). Renmin Ribao 15 July: 3.
Shorter, F.C. 1978. Computational Methods for Population Projections: With Particular Reference to Development Planning. New York: Population Council.
State Statistical Bureau. 1984. Statistical Yearbook of China. Hong Kong: Economic Information Agency.
United Nations. 1985. World Population Prospects as Assessed in 1982. New York: United Nations.
Wang, Wei. 1986a. “Guojia ji wei zhu Wang Wei tongzhi zai di si ci quanguo renkou kexue taolunhui shangde jianghua.” (Speech at the Fourth National Population Symposium, 11 November 1984). Renkou Yanjiu 1: 2–5.
——. 1986b. Interview with Susan Greenhalgh. November.
Whyte, Martin K. and William L. Parish. 1984. Urban Life in Contemporary China. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Wolf, M. 1985. Revolution Postponed: Women in Contemporary China. Stanford CA: Stanford University Press.
Wu Cangping. 1985. “Wo guo renkou fazhan zhanlue chutan” (A preliminary inquiry into the strategy of China’s population development). Renkou Yanjiu 5: 2–7.
Wu Cangping. 1986. “Zhongguo shengyulu xunsu xiajiangde lilun jieshi” (Theoretical explanation on rapid decline of China’s fertility). Renkou Yanjiu 1: 10–16.
Zhao, L.R. and C.Z. Zhu. 1983. Renkou Yanjiu 4: 47.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1992 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Greenhalgh, S., Bongaarts, J. (1992). Fertility Policy in China: Future Options. In: Poston, D.L., Yaukey, D. (eds) The Population of Modern China. The Plenum Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-1231-2_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-1231-2_15
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-0-306-44138-7
Online ISBN: 978-1-4899-1231-2
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive