Energy Black Hole

Abstract

A cycle of global climatic changes is predicted to occur over the next few decades, which will be unfavorable to agricultural production. Thus, we may face not only an increasing demand for food for survival, but the specter of global famine leading to deaths of hundreds of millions of people. Under such extreme circumstances, desalination of sea water may become an absolute necessity for growing subsistence crops. It is estimated that it will take about 50 megajoules of energy to desalinate one cubic meter of sea water. On this basis we have to double the current world energy consumption to meet a subsistence level of agriculture. However, if we include the technological, economic, and industrial layout necessary and the corresponding strain on the other life-sustaining uses of materials, then we may be facing a task that we never before had to undertake for survival. This means that we may reach a critical point where energy, usable without endangering the environment, is considerably less than the required amount for the continuation of life on this planet. Under these circumstances, it would be a short time, compared to the time spanned by the entire history of our civilization, for life, under its own weight, to collapse. Thus the earth would become a dead planet, or an “energy black hole.” In order to avoid or to indefinitely postpone such an eventuality we must not be based on the geopolitical distribution of resources, know-how, and technological capabilities and potentials alone.