Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting
In this chapter, we introduce the concept of time-series forecasting straight using a couple of examples. We’ll talk about a popular bank, which has been offering credit cards to its customers for more than a decade. Every month the bank has some customers who file for bankruptcy. Some customers have defaulted on their loans for more than six months, and finally they need to be taken off the books. Obviously, this is a loss to the bank, in terms of dollars and accounts. Can the bank proactively estimate these losses for each of its portfolios? Can the bank proactively take necessary steps to control the loss and find out whether it is going to soar in the future? How does the bank forecast such losses based on historical data?