Issues, Design and Interpretation of Performance Evaluations: Ensuring the Emperor Has Clothes
Air quality model performance evaluation has been moving toward a more refined and statistically based status, beginning with the 1980 AMS/EPA Woods Hole Workshop of Dispersion Model Performance (Fox, 1981). The goal is to obtain a reasonably objective and well-defined evaluation. The general approach has been to address this goal solely through the use of statistics. As a result, a wealth of statistics is often presented for any one evaluation (Smith, 1984; Wackter and Londergan, 1984; Rao and Visalli, 1981). However, upon closer examination of the statistical results, it appears that a paucity of understanding has been achieved. This is seen as a severe problem for air quality model evaluations because adequate understanding of a model’s performance is crucial.
KeywordsModel Performance Monitoring Site Cinder Cone Longe Travel Distance Vertical Dispersion
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